For the last few weeks I have been crowing non-stop about how I am making lots of opportunistic trades against Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden now that the two of them are basically towering above the Dem field like this:
My philosophy is that neither Godzilla (Bernie) nor Kong (Biden) has defeated this three headed beast yet–
And that in the near future there will be polls and/or results in early primaries that cause enough volatility on PredictIt for me to profit by shorting Bernie and Biden at the insane peak valuations that they’ve been hitting lately.
I honestly think these prices are worse than rap/rock and cannot believe people are buying into them. I wrote about this a few different times:
This is a risky strategy due to the fact that we are less than one month away from Iowa and there is a chance that I get cucked for holding on to NO shares for the two candidates, Bernie and Biden, who are most likely to win this race. They are the FAVORITES for a reason. There is a scenario where they just smash through IA, NH, NV, and SC the way Godzilla smashed through New York in the 1998 re-boot starring Matthew Broderick.
That would be terrible news because (1) the only thing worse than the 1998 Godzilla remake was the 2019 Kamala Harris presidential campaign; and (2) Bernie and Biden crushing the early primaries would do the following to my bankroll:
But one of the things I love about betting on politics is that I get to back my opinions, which are genius, up with cash. So for those of you who are wondering — and who need some ideas for how to absolutely nuke the betting lines on PredictIt — here are all the trades I’ve made in the Dem Primary. This sheet will automatically update as I add more.
When these hit, I will be sure to buy all of you some Modelos at the bar.