IOWA DEM DEBATE: Mention Markets Are Locked and Loaded

Monsters, I have been a little disappointed in PredictIt’s mention markets lately. This is mostly due to the fact that they are now in bracketed categories that are much harder to predict (instead of just YES/NO bets) and because they are on weird Fox News/MSNBC red meat topics that are dumb and sort of conspiracy theory-adjacent. That said, I am going to take a stab at tonight’s. But first, here is your Dem Debate Preview from STAR SPANGLED STUDIOS:

How Many Candidates Will Say “Billionaire” and/or “Millionaire”?

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If you have had a gambling problem for as long as I have, then you have been betting on the word “billionaire” for months now. PredictIt’s adding the term “millionaire” into the  mix is a new ripple but I am honestly more prepared than a Boy Scout in a hardware store for it. I dusted off the “billionaire” model I made for the Atlanta debate and plugged in some new numbers. Take a look.

It turns out that there is not a single time that a Dem candidate has used the word “millionaire” unless he or she said it in the same sentence as “billionaire.” This is just savage and proves that the Democratic field is absolutely terrified of insulting the millionaire rich people who finance their campaigns with cash/white guilt. 

Knowing this, I am going to play the numbers here and bet on 2-4 mentions for an average cost of about 75 cents. If you read my last mention market post, the “billionaires” question actually broke my career undefeated streak of mention market wins. I bet heavy on 3 and put in hedges at 2 and 4 to limit my losses. 4 won and for the first time ever, I lost money in one of these markets. That said I am a genius so I know that if I try this again, it will work.

How Many Candidates Will Say “Impeach” or Some Version of It?

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To get started, let’s look at the data

This one is actually tricky and basically boils down to your personal philosophy.

As most of you know, my personal philosophy is to crank Modelos with the boys, stuff some Adderrall up my nose, and hope for the best. That is probably not the best way for me to advise you on how to bet this market though because it is really a question of whether or not the Dem candidates are as embarrassed by the impeachment cluster F or not. Do you think they want to move on or keep beating this dead horse? The answer to that question comes down to this:

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DEEP THOUGHTS:

I can see a question from the moderators about what Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren’s plan is for the campaign if they get stuck in DC for an “impeachment” trial. But the cost of buying the “lots of ppl talking about impeachment” is insanely high so I do not foresee myself having a big enough chubby to wager in the department.

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So I am making a value buy at “1” and “2” and hoping that these Dems are are tired of “impeachment” talk as regular people

How Many Debates Will Say “Soleimani”??

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To be ready for this one, I have been listening to the stump speeches that candidates have been giving ever since Trump BBQ’ed General Qasem Soleimani while he was waiting in the Sonic drive-thru outside of the Baghdad Airport. That said there is only so much that stump speeches can tell you because there are no moderators shouting “gotcha” questions at Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete, etc. like Wolf Blitzer will be tonight.

Going on instinct, here is what I think:

— Basically for his whole career, Joe Biden’s favorite flex is to sound smart on foreign policy. I fully expect that Uncle Joe will want to show-off that he knows people in the Middle East, is well-read on the issues there, and can pronounce Qasem Soleimani’s name even though he cannot pronounce Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s. Count him in for a mention.

— Mayor Pete is a smarty pants who likes to brag about being good at war due to the fact that he served in Afghanistan. He is also a Harvard guy so definitely a know-it-all who will want to use big words to wow the public like “Soleimani.” Likely to mention.

— Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — I am 99 percent sure that they do not even know what foreign policy is. I have honestly never heard either of them talk about it voluntarily in my life. The only exception to this are those awesome America’s Funniest Home Videos of Bernie jerking-off the USSR and the Sandinista communist rebels in Nicaragua back in the day. Idk maybe he was just doing a lot of coke like the rest of us tho.

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But now both of them really like to restrain their talking points to things that they can tax rich people for. That said there is always the chance that Wolf Blitzer hits them with the “gotcha!” Iran question to keep things interesting.

— Tom Steyer won’t get enough speaking time to do anything other than explain his tie.

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— Maybe Amy Klobuchar f*cks with some “Soleimani.” She is pretty capable and I could see her getting into this. Also she has a knack for getting asked serious questions and not dumb, “Green New Deal: Who Wore It Better?” garbage.

But the fact that I am just making wild guesses based on these candidates’ personalities is not a huge encouragement in a market this split up. Not a fan.

MOST SPEAKING TIME

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This debate is being as billed as everyone-vs.-Bernie since he has basically just taken a chainsaw across Warren, Biden, and Buttigieg’s polling numbers since the Holidays. He also had the most speaking time in LA. I fully expect him to be responding to attacks from every direction, which is where he is most comfortable. Bernie is basically the Big Ben of quarterbacks — just sits in their taking hits and pounding the ball downfield.

LEAST SPEAKING TIME:

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On the other side of the ball is Tom Steyer, who is guaranteed to have the least speaking time. He has done an amazing job of greasing voters to like him in South Carolina but I doubt that he can grease Wolf Blitzer to give him speaking time. The Fake News Media hates rich guys so he is basically going to be a wallflower.

WHO WILL WIN THE DEBATE?

I’m probably going to watch before I bet on this. But smart move is to bet on whoever has room to improve. That means Pete and Klobuchar to me. They’re polling low, have gotten lots of speaking time in recent debates, and generally do well when the lights are on them.

Good luck out there.

KEENDAWG.

 

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