I have been getting waterboarded by you animals for weeks for saying that Bernie Sanders is overrated and possibly fake news. I have made this argument a few different ways but clearly my take is less popular than Bud Light Seltzer so I am Truly getting creamed left and right for it. Bernie is #1 basically everywhere but the South and that is not going to change between now and Iowa. That means it is time to change up my game.
So there you have it. I am going to give a little ground on my Bernie is trash take. FWIW Nate Silver is singing the same song I am but with way worse hair.
Secondly, I caught up with Jason Pipkin aka @jipkin last night and will release a podcast ASAP about Iowa and beyond. Sorry but I have a real job and need to occasionally find time to watch porn and read hot takes about The Bachelor.
Lastly, I promised you animals that I would tell you why I think the politics are wrong for Bernie to just nuke the Dem Primary the way that Trump did in 2016, which is what everyone seems totally wet about right now. Tbh I just think that people on PredictIt and in the Fake News Media (FNM) are more obsessed with fighting the last war than the French were in 1940.
First, I do not think that Bernie 2020 is a lock for a Trump 2016 run because Bernie does not speak for a massive chunk of his party that people have been ignoring for decades. His supporters basically all identified themselves in 2016 so we know who they are what they care about. Also there is probably no cultural block in the USA that is more over-represented in public dialogue than young liberal people, except for maybe rich older liberal people, who are Elizabeth Warren’s (gluten free) bread and (non-dairy) butter. This is the exact opposite of the classic Trump voter.
Second, the only thing that is more popular than the flavor-of-the-month candidate is the flavor-of-the-month campaign comparison. For a long time people were yapping about how the 2020 Dem Primary would be a repeat of the 2012 GOP race, where Mitt Romney (in 2020, Joe Biden) basically napalmed hard-right challengers with donor cash and crash-landed in Tampa with the nomination tied-up in Clint Eastwood’s empty chair.
A week ago people were saying the better comp is 2004 when the Dems basically just declared John Kerry their guy because he looked like a president and had won Iowa. Now they are butt-chugging Bernie Juice because it could be 2016 all-over again. I will defer to pollster Patrick Ruffini for this take:
Lastly I think that because there is so much information available on the Internet, people are not understanding how little they know. I personally think it is hilarious that smart people out there are reading “viability” procedures in Iowa and gaming out who will be voters’ second choice in case their candidate is not “viable.” Of course this is important but we honestly have an extremely lousy impression of who voters’ first pick is, so that tells me that I do not give a crap who their #2 is. Also there is the fact that The New York Times-Siena Poll that gave everyone such a huge boner for Bernie stated that 41 percent voters hadn’t made up their minds yet. The Jan 13 Monmouth Poll, which put Biden in the lead, showed that only 56 percent of voters had “firmly” made up their minds or thought there was a “low possibility” of changing their minds.
Lastly, I am 99 percent sure that New Hampshire voters just enjoy picking someone different from Iowans so that they can stay relevant. This is honestly the type of stuff that convinces people how to vote. I am not making that up.
Moral of the story: nobody knows jack!!!! And that probably includes me. So do your own research and have fun. This time next week, I could be poor AF. Or you could be banging a tambourine for me by a campfire and attempting to once again summon my genius. I of course, will appear on command — as long as you sign up for my newsletter.
PS — watch this video if you haven’t already. It should win at least 7 Oscars.