Animals, we are two days away from the Iowa Caucuses. By now I am sure that all of you realize the presidential campaign is pretty much a real life version of the movie Inception.
This is the classic film where Leonardo DiCaprio and Joseph Gordon Levitt have to teleport into people’s brains and f*ck with them on several intersecting planes of reality to influence the future.
I relate to this on a personal level because I too teleport into another reality before making genius political predictions. Unfortunately, when I get zapped into a parallel universe it is with these–
And not a brain-erasing machine built by Ken Wantanabe:
But no matter how you look at it, there are so many political questions happening right now across so many different dimensions that it is very hard to make predictions about how the Democratic Primary will go. For that reason, I am going to stop making new trades until I have a clearer picture. As I have been saying for the last few weeks, nobody knows jack. Here are the questions I need to know a little more about.
(1) Which of the big name candidates are actually good?
Bernie Sanders has been on a savage bull run, but if he underperforms in Iowa there will be plenty of evidence for haters to point to and say he was overrated all along.
This would not be a surprise due to the fact that the Bernie Bros have been in a political dream state about their candidate since 2015.
Joe Biden has basically been a truck that no amount of bad press from the Fake News Media (FNM) could stop. But now he looks a little wobbly with Bernie Sanders overtaking him in the polls. Also the FNM has been lining up against Bernie by goosing Amy Kloubchar and Elizabeth Warren’s campaigns. But when it comes to Biden, their message has been:
I do not even know if Elizabeth Warren is still running for president or just hanging out with editorial boards and collecting endorsements from journos. She has basically gotten lost in the liberal subconscious and is down to one last argument for her candidacy:
But if Sen. Warren made a comeback people would be like, “Told ya so!”
Then there is Amy Klobuchar, who people like me have been pumping for months as a dark horse and is getting serious traction in Iowa at exactly the right time.
But do you think that the human representation of the color beige is going to win this race?
(2) Is Michael Bloomberg for real?
Michael Bloomberg has now spent $250 million on his presidential campaign and the polls are responding. In November, we clowned on him spending the approximate GDP of Bulgaria to get a 2 percent support. It is now almost February and RCP has him in fourth with 8.2 percent support from voters. Combine that with the fact that Bloomberg is going to have fresh legs on Super Tuesday while the likes of Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders could be extremely banged-up from Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada — and things could get sticky.
I have made a move on this front: I bought YES shares in the “Will Bloomberg Win at least one primary” market. Mock me if you must.
(3) Will Joe Biden flex in the South?
Basically everyone assumes that Joe Biden is going to nuke the Southern Primaries due to the fact that black voters absolutely love him. But if Biden gets blanked in the first three primaries and wins South Carolina by a narrow margin, things could get choppy. This ties in to both the Bernie Domino Theory and the Bloomberg Carpet Bombing With Cash Theory, both of which should be self-explanatory.
On the flip side, there is a massive assumption that prices to buy YES on Joe Biden winning Southern states are going to fall dramatically if and when Bernie vaporizes Biden’s campaign in IA and NH.
But this could be fake news too. YES prices on Biden are down across the board and I would not be surprised if the market has already priced-in Biden’s likely losses in the early primaries. Here is a map from the geniuses at Political Alert Engine.
Knowing all of this, I can’t possibly lift my finger to bet right now.
Some of you may think that I am a beta for not wanting to gamble. But at this point I would rather win 20-30 percent on a well-informed, post-Iowa bets than just dive deeper into parallel political universes searching for homeruns. I might be acting like a massive cuck but I am just hoping that after South Carolina is over, I will be able to re-enter my body without massive neural damage. The first chance to do that will be after the big one-
Think I can hang on for that long?