Generally speaking I do not like to barf Mon-Fri (Saturdays are for the boys) but given that we are just hours away from seeing some results from the Iowa Caucuses, I am going to verbally vomit some last takes in this post.
— It is officially DNC Primary Week 1. Right now Iowa is looking like a home game for Bernie Sanders. That said it is currently 36 degrees in Des Moines with 18 mph winds; and it is 40 degrees in Cedar Rapids with 14 mph winds. Those conditions are not ideal for Sanders’ team. We all know that Bernie cannot and will not run the political football up the Middle and is reliant on overloading the Left side of the field to motivate high turnout among young and minority voters who often do not show up to the polls. This Left Coast Offense can break down if bad weather reduces turnout. I’ll be curious to see if conditions come into play.
— But then again you could say that for Joe Biden’s base too.
— Nobody knows jack about this election. Zero votes have been counted. So I would suggest ignoring any huckster who tells you he knows what’s going to happen in Iowa and beyond.
— I am thinking that it might have been wrong to discount Elizabeth Warren and call her a loser. She’s been moving in the right direction in the polls and is a pretty savage door-to-door campaigner.
— Joe Biden is currently running on two messages: I am friends with Barack O’Bama and Donald Trump is scared of me because I can “beat him like a drum.” With a message that personal to voters, I do not know what could possibly go wrong.
— Am I crazy or do voters in IA and NH just like to pick opposite candidates and/or random candidates so that they can stay relevant?
— Here is a PDF with Iowa’s most populous counties’ 2016 margins. You can probably make some smart trades as the returns come in tonight if you are armed with even this much info:Iowa-Results-2016-Sheet1
— Look at these maps from 2016 and dream.
Here are some final takes from some prominent political minds.
As I reminder, I bet NO on Bernie tonight. If I lose, tomorrow will officially be SSG Reader Appreciation Day — because all of you have been telling me I am a moron not to Feel the Bern. You will be taking my money. And maybe that is what we both deserve.
Good luck out there.