When I do not know what to make of things — like this total snafu in Iowa — I go looking for inspiration. There are some boneheads on PredictIt who look for answers about the political future by referencing data, doing math, learning about history etc., but I think that is 100 percent the wrong move. I like to predict the future by learning about the future, which is why I recently watched The Terminator. In it are the answers to the current Iowa situation:
In all seriousness, I’m holding some YES Buttigieg shares. As I have been saying throughout the Iowa Caucuses, I really do not know what is going to happen so I have been letting price action tell me where to park my cash. I traded a few shares of Mayor Pete profitably last night when he was down at 23 cents but didn’t really have the stones to go-in big. I bought a few more today at 28 cents and we will see what happens.
The TL:DR is that obviously the odds here should be closer to 50-50 and an election that had lower-than-expected turnout is a savage blow to a lot of the Bernie-Wins-Easy models that expected this election to be more over-subscribed than a Taylor Swift tour. I think most of the takes floating around are fake news and am sticking to that.
Also, FWIW, this platform puts me in touch with a lot of traders. The vast majority of them, including me, have no clue what is going on and where things are headed from here. So if you feel like a moron, I’ve got a beer for you.
You’re not alone.