GAHHHH!!! New Hampshire Debate Mention Markets
I have been seeing you chirp my DMs for Dem Debate markets all day while I have been grinding for the Man out here in BroCal. But when the people call, I answer:
Historically, debate “mention markets,” where we bet on what politicians will say, are the bets that I do the best in. But I wet the bed every time I have to make mention market picks because sometimes there is nothing to go off other than instinct. That said some dawgs just have killer instincts.
Here we go:
“Millionaires and Billionaires” — I am tired of betting on this and I think the questions these politicians are going to get will shift away from boring stump speech stuff and into the zone of “will you support the eventual nominee?” “Can you unite the party,” “Will you drop out?” I also just do not want to reward PredictIt for giving us extremely lazy markets like this one, so basically I am saying I’m not gonna bet on this. Sorry. Look at my last post for some historic data on “millionaire” and “billionaire” bets.
“Iowa” Mentions — I don’t expect this to be a blockbuster but the moderators are guaranteed to ask Bernie and/or Mayor Pete about it, maybe in conjunction with a Q about whether or not Bernie would support the eventual nominee given the psycho nature of Bernie Bros who are constantly accusing the DNC of rules cucking him out of the presidency. Also I can totally imagine Mayor Pete and/or Joe Biden saying, “the American People want us to put Iowa behind us…” I am taking 1 and 2 mentions. Depending on how the first few mins of the debate go, I’m also going to buy either 0 or 3.
“Health care” mentions — this is my favorite. Here is a chart I made. I do not really know how much having Michael Bloomberg in the mix will change thing here. Bloomberg will want to draw a line between himself and others based on the fact that he is not a communist and that could include dunking on Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders for something “health care” related. But I do not really think this is one of his talking points, so I am not waiting his presence that heavily. Check out the table below:
| Debate | Bernie | Biden | Buttigieg | Warren | Steyer | Yang | Klobuchar | Bloomberg | Total |
| Iowa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | X | 1 | X | 6 |
| Los Angles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | X | 4 |
| Atlanta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | X | 5 |
| Houston | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | X | 5 |
| AVG | 1 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0 | 0.5 | XXX | 5 |
CORRECTION — OKAY I GET IT BLOOMBERG ISN’T IN THIS. But that enforces my point. Still valuing his mentions at 0. PS send Adderrall, I have a job.
I’m taking 4, 5, and 6.
KEENDAWG.
