There is way too much happening right now to keep track of. So instead of gambling recklessly, I am going to spend a minute in the lab. I opened up some recent polls and am going to highlight some stuff that popped for me. The first few are from The Economist/YouGov’s Feb 2-4 poll.
What I am noticing here is that:
- Black people still love Joe Biden (65 percent approval)
- He’s still 69 percent approval with all Dems. His name ID absolutely crushes — 85 percent recognition
- He’s got a real problem with Hispanics. This may be due to the fact that Barack O’Bama deported a record number of illegal immigrants. This is bad news for his hopes in CA and NV.
What I am seeing here is that:
- There are a serious number of people who still do not know who Pete Buttigieg is. In the case of Blacks and Hispanics, that number is way bigger than the total of people who actually have an opinion about him at all.
- The good part of this is he is making progress from the zero percent support he had with African-Americans a few month ago.
- 78 percent of Dems know who Mayor Pete is, which tells me that he is basically the Billie Eilish of politics. He is a total smash hit with influential demos and doing a good job of working his way into public consciousness.
- However, this needs to improve, especially for him to compete in big states where he can’t blitz/nuke the tiny population with his presence for 6+ months the way he did to Iowa.
- This makes me think that New Hampshire is must-win, because there is not enough time or money for Pete to catch-up in the remaining 48 states.
- Conversely, this makes me think that if Pete wins New Hampshire, he has enough cross-demographic appeal to go on an absolute heater with minority demos, despite what the FNM has been saying for months.
- It’s hard to say whether or not Hispanics have a fully-formed opinion of Bernie. This might cockblock his chances to capitalize on their skepticism of Joe Biden and sort of plays into the “Biden Dies, Bloomberg Rise” conspiracy theory.
- Black voters also are not sure what to make of Bernie.
- Despite what you hear in the Fake News Media, Bernie Sanders has very strong approval from most registered Dems and is not fringe at all.
It looks to me like:
- Voters know who Michael Bloomberg is about as well as they do Pete Buttigieg. Not sure who that is a compliment to and who it is a slight to.
- Now time to make a judgement call: about 40 percent of blacks and hispanics do not really know what they think of Michael Bloomberg. For some candidates, that is a massive liability. But with Bloomberg’s unlimited money, this is actually a huge opportunity to just stuff their gullets with paid ads about how he is basically Jesus.
- Bloomberg scores best as a “somewhat favorable” candidate with rank-and-file Dems. This helps the narrative that he is the guy they could settle for if Joe Biden gets blown off the map early.
- She does about as well as Bernie with minorities but has a longer way to go with her getting her message out to them.
- She has savage “highly approve” numbers which makes me think she is Left-of-Center America’s dream girl. Like they really want to bone but just assume she is too good for them and it is not going to happen (thus her polling numbers).
I am going to post a few more of these over the weekend and try to draw some conclusions by Monday.