As promised, I am just going to rip through a few polls and what they are making me think about. Eventually I will decide on how to bet on this information but for now, I am just fully committed to getting woke about the facts.
This post is focused on The Dallas Morning News’s poll about the Texas Primary, which is on Super Tuesday. I am emotionally banged-up trying to to deal with big states races, like the one in Texas, due to the fact that a lot of people are saying that Joe Biden is a massive cuck loser who is going to quit before it even happens. If Joe Biden doesn’t make it to Super Tuesday, it is hard for me to imagine who could take his place. And if Biden does make it to Super Tuesday, what is realistic to expect from him… a big comeback in the South? Or a campaign that basically just decays into an irrelevant queef of Obama-era nostalgia on its way to doom? These are the types of questions that can drive a man insane. And the range of possibilities is massive. I will try to sort them out in the next few days.
For now I am going to steer (get it?) this conversation towards this page of The Dallas Morning News‘s Jan 21-30 poll:dallas-morning-news-tx
It is interesting to see that Biden is somewhat flaccid with minorities in TX and that Bernie is getting more of a rise out of them. My take on this is that latinos are about 39 percent of Texans (3X the black vote) and this probably means that they are skeptical of him. This would be due to the fact that during the Obama-era, one of Texas’s biggest exports was undocumented hispanic immigrants. But in 2016 Bernie honestly got nuked in Texas (i’ll post on this later) so it is pretty shocking to see that he is the top pick to win the state among PredictIt traders. Honestly, I always thought that the only thing Bernie Sanders would ever be the favorite for in Texas would be to be a victim in the next Texas Chainsaw Massacre film.
I am interested to see what happens when other candidates start spending money in Texas/other states that only Bloomberg is active in right now. I have made some dough trading small Bloomberg-to-Win positions here but am not really looking to get back in at the current price. A state this big is a place where Bloomberg’s cash could make a mark.
I am also starting to believe that with a victory in New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg could scale his message to reach donors and voters in a place like Texas. But this is a subject for another day.