It is pretty late on the West Coast so I assume that most of you have already tucked yourselves into bed and laid out your Adderrall/coffee/cocaine for some heavy trading during Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primaries. But before you start jamming that powdered courage up your nose and clicking “buy” on PredictIt, I think it would be a dynamite idea to think about the assumptions that are cooked into the Dem Primary cake. Basically, all the pricing on PredictIt depends on a few things being true and I personally will be shocked if all of them stand the test of time. Your first dose of wisdom will be about BERNIE and BIDEN.
ASSUMPTION 1 — Bernie Sanders is on a rocketship to the nomination, and Joe Biden is basically drowning in a sea of Obama-era nostalgia that he is too old to swim in.
Here is a map of BERNIE SANDERS PRICES:
The unspoken point is that Bernie Sanders is favored to win every single state but Iowa.
And here is a map of BIDEN PRICES:
Hmmm. It looks to me like there is a consensus that Joe Biden’s campaign will have less staying power than the Cats movie, which kind of makes sense but kind of doesn’t. On one hand, Universal did re-cut Cats after it bombed worse than John Carter in its premier; and Joe Biden has definitely re-cut his campaign’s message since he bombed just as badly in Iowa. But Joe Biden does have a fortress in South Carolina as well as a huge advantage in Southern states due to his popularity (for now) with black voters. See our complimentary piece on Bloomberg for more on that.
What these assumptions are missing for Joe Biden:
- Joe Biden or another moderate could still win Nevada. There is not much polling there and the big daddy union in Vegas is being extremely passive aggressive towards Bernie Sanders. I personally think they are trying to bone him without getting caught in the act:
I actually think this is important due to the fact that health care plans are the thing that unions tends to get their panties twisted-up the most about. Yes, buzzkill for Joe that he didn’t get the Culinary Workers Union endorsement, but this certainly helps and is at least as useful to Joe Biden’s hopes of winning the Nevada Caucuses as a six pack of warm Trulys is to my hopes of smashing at the Long Beach roller derby.
More missing assumptions from the Biden narrative:
- Joe Biden could win a South Carolina, then carry a few states in the South on Super Tuesday that give him enough life to keep fundraising and force weaker moderates, like Mayor Pete and Amy Klobuchar, out of the race.
- Mayor Pete could win New Hampshire/Nevada and force Amy Klobuchar out of the race by Wednesday, freeing up a meaningful number of moderate votes — and newspaper endorsements — that he or Biden could take,
Here is what these assumptions are missing for Bernie Sanders:
- Bernie could lose New Hampshire and/or Nevada and find himself playing defense going into Super Tuesday.
- Bernie Sanders is already, and will continue to be, relentlessly attacked by Democratic Super PAC money.*
*It’s hard to say whether Bernie is going to get banged-up by attack ads due to the fact that once you become a Bernie Sanders supporter, you basically are in a cult that only lets you quit if you die, and you stop caring about what commercials on TV say.
Assumption 2A – There are definitely powerful players in this primary who want a brokered convention. BTW, “brokered convention” is the DNC’s codeword for “Cucking Bernie”
- This is a place where you just have to take my genius on faith but you will be rewarded if you do.
- I highly doubt that Michael Bloomberg’s strategy is to win the nomination outright. I think his plan to give select states a firehose of propaganda is proof that that he wants to rack-up enough delegates to be the kingmaker at the Convention.
- Fake News Media outlets like The New York Times are reporting that Elizabeth Warren’s new strategy is to basically survive the post-New Hampshire nuclear winter like a cockroach and pick-up enough delegates to be a contender at a brokered convention.
WHAT WE CAN CONCLUDE IS: Probably both assumptions — that Biden is a cuck loser; and that the Bernie dominoes will fall — are wrong. Some of the biggest alphas in Democratic Party politics are betting millions of dollars and their whole careers on the 2020 primary being a total mess, with multiple candidates winning multiple states.
So I guess I need to write another piece on why those assumptions are wrong too.