I am seriously fired-up to talk about Michael Bloomberg. This is due to the fact that he is the only presidential candidate who would most likely lose an arm wrestling contest to Elizabeth Warren because he is actually shorter than her.
It is also because I have just been laughing my pants off while retail traders have robbed the “pros” blind by anticipating Michael Bloomberg’s rise in popularity.
In a way, this is actually less surprising than the ending of every M. Night Shyamalan movie since Signs. PredictIt’s in-crowd of traders are mostly math dorks who either do not care or do not have actual political/emotional intelligence and tend to whiff on stuff like this. I personally have never been told that I have any intelligence at all but I do generally buy beers in multiples of 30, so I guess that means I am good with numbers.
Anyway, not to toot my own horn but I told you a while ago that I bought shares of Bloomberg in Texas, Oklahoma, Utah, Montana, and the “Will he win one primary?” markets… and have been very happy to fill my bag with gold. But let’s tackle the important question — because there are two massive BLOOMBERG NARRATIVES that are affecting prices on PredictIt everywhere.
ASSUMPTION 1 – Joe Biden will fail and Michael Bloomberg will jam a shiv in his back and unify the moderate block of the Democratic Party against Bernie Sanders.
Here is what this assumption is missing:
- Joe Biden isn’t the only moderate Bloomberg has to beat. If Pete Buttigieg wins New Hampshire, he could possibly get on a rocketship and escape the gravity of this extremely messy primary.
- Bloomberg has to win something to be viable, especially with the expectations his $300+ million campaign has created.
- It is asking a lot for Bloomberg to win even a single Super Tuesday state. When it comes to courting voters, a billionaire, Jewish, former Republican, former sponsor of stop-and-frisk policing brings more baggage with him to a Democratic Primary than Taylor Swift brings to a relationship.
- If Bloomberg doesn’t win a single state on Super Tuesday, is he really going to spend another $300 million on a do-over?
There is a second assumption that is exactly opposite this one…
Assumption 2 – Michael Bloomberg is fake news and will be rejected by minorities due to the fact that he was Mayor Stop-and-Frisk, is a former Republican, a billionaire, and tried to take away people’s jumbo sodas
I will now write Bloomberg’s response to every one of these charges:
- He is a former Republican” — “Donald Trump is a former Democrat… I have given more money to Democratic Party causes than anyone in history.”
- “He supported stop-and-frisk” — “I helped reduce crime in black and brown neighborhoods by XX percent. New York City was never safer. My successor ended these programs because they were so successful that they were no longer necessary.”
- “He’s a billionaire” — “We need all the resources we can get to stop Donald Trump… and I don’t take money from special interests like THEY do.”
- “He tried to take away soda.” — “I was searching for a way to reduce the incidence of obesity and diabetes. It didn’t work so we moved on and now I am addressing them through my charitable foundation.”
Lastly, I think people who are hardcore Bloomberg haters are forgetting one big thing: MONEY. Most people are not psychopaths who watch every bit of news coverage about politics because they have a gambling problem which also happens to be constructive outlet for the cocaine habit they never got rid of from their 20s. Because of this, Bloomberg’s absolute carpet bombing of Super Tuesday states is an enormous advantage. There is at least a 99 percent chance that most people do not know all the negative facts about Bloomberg that will eventually weigh him down. He is literally $300 million ahead of the negative press and is hard at work defining the entire race in meaningful states like Texas and Florida while Mayor Pete and Bernie Sanders squabble over a measly few dozen “State Delegate Equivalents” in Iowa.
Which narrative do you buy? I tend to think that Bloomberg shares are too rich at this point and that if you want to play it smart, trade as returns come in on Super Tuesday. Here’s the map right now:
Regardless, spend some time thinking for yourself.