Yesterday, I took a day off from trading. I was sucking wind in a serious way after basically going on a 5-day bender to trade my Bernie NOs and my Pete YES’s in Iowa; then unloading my Amy Klobuchar Dem Nominee shares that I’ve been holding since July for a 3X gain; then selling my Bloomberg shares in UT, MA, OK, MT, and TX for 2-4X gain.
However there is also another side of this story. I am not sure if you know this about me but I am basically the voice of my generation. So I will now proceed to drop the heartbreak on you that gives this blog post the stakes of an Oscar-winning screenplay. While I was committing armed robberies in these six states, I was conveniently ignoring the monsters hiding under my bed: NO bets on Bernie Sanders in California and Texas, and a NO bet on Michael Bloomberg in Alabama. All of these positions have entry prices that are uglier than John C. Reilly, so I am wetting the bed nightly.
Long story short, I have been spending some time in the lab getting my facts straight on how the next stage of this Democratic Primary will proceed and how to anticipate the betting action on PredictIt. First I want to talk about pricing.
If you are betting YES on Dem Nomination candidates, you are getting scalped in most markets
There are so many candidates pumping in so many different directions based on so much partial/fake news about who is in and who is out in the Dem field that you can get free money negative risk bets in almost any state. For example:
— In Texas, the top four candidates are piced at 105 cents
— Same with IL
— No one has any clue WTF is going on in VA, where YES prices are up to around 110 cents for the field. What a tax!
— And by far the most f-ed up state I have bothered to check is TN, where prices for the field are near 112 cents. Holy smokes.
WTF is going on?
I think a few things are happening. First of all, there is the massive rush of people trying to bet on Bloomberg to win the nomination. The Fake News Media has been talking a lot lately about him gathering strength with black voters, so the thinking is that he’ll just steal Joe Biden’s coalition in the South once the former VP gets done giving himself a swirly in Nevada and South Carolina. Just look at the Democratic Nomination chart to get a feel for how traders have gone hog wild betting on him ever since the results from Iowa came in and were basically as clear of a prediction tool as reading a toad’s innards or some idiot viking’s runes.
Like I said, pricing is especially horrible in the South. I assume this is because there are a lot of betas who bought the top of the Bernie boom there (bad move, chaco) and don’t want to sell; and then some other savages propping up Biden’s prices because they think he has one last charge left in him after South Carolina.
How to bet?
I do not actually know who is going to win this primary and it is a total hail storm even picking these states. Two weeks ago we took-off in the fog from Iowa and now that Michael Bloomberg’s money is seriously distorting polling and markets, we are going to be landing in a hellacious cross wind that makes the 737 MAX seem like a safe mode of travel.
For now, your easiest money maker is this: NEGATIVE RISK. If you’re smart, there is plenty of free money in just taking the NO sides of some of these trades. But be smart — don’t get cucked.
Thanks for flying KEENDAWG AIR.
Thanks for flying Keendawg Air.