As most of you know, one of the biggest traditions in Nevada/the desert is UFO sitings. This is a very complicated subject. Many people believe that the constant UFO sitings in remote parts of Nevada are fake news/and or the product of people being extremely bored and high on peyote. But many people have thought over the years that there is actually something to the reports of alien visitors in the sky. Perhaps the government is testing super weapons there. Or perhaps Martians also love to party in Vegas but do not want to fly commercial out of McCarran. I do not know. All I know is that there is a long history of unexplainable events in the Silver State, and as the Nevada Democratic Caucuses gets closer, the instances of weird phenomena in politics are multiplying.
How many are there? I can barely list them. First, PredictIt traders started giving Elizabeth Warren massive odds to win the race in Nevada despite the fact that she was polling worse than sobriety there. If you were following us during the summer, you probably robbed the bank on this trade. Then the casino workers union absolutely castrated itself by deciding not to endorse anyone this past week. This was more inexplicable than the Roswell landing in neighboring New Mexico. Now, with less than a week to go before the election, Rich Guy Tom Steyer has taken a lead according to a fringe AF poll, and is in fourth in The Las Vegas Journal-Review’s Feb 11-13 poll.
I personally have hard a time processing this information. It is very difficult to predict who will win the Nevada Caucuses for a lot of reasons, which the Fake News Media can tell you all about: the demographics of this state are different than IA and NH, the Caucus system is weird, and it’s the first contest that isn’t a straight-up road game for Joe Biden’s hurt AF campaign. It’s also a place where Elizabeth Warren is well-organized and hasn’t completely collapsed. Also, according to one genius (me), it feels like too much to expect for Amy Klobuchar to quickly scale-up and swagger around Nevada after her solid performance in NH. And on an extremely non-PC level, I just don’t see how a short, gay, Harvard-type like Pete Buttigieg is going to suddenly pop in a state full of cowboys, immigrants, and uranium miners.
What does this mean???
If you have been paying close attention to me then you noticed that I have been considering a position on Tom Steyer in Nevada. A few days ago I posted on my Twitter (follow me for extra picks and content):
One of you animals responded to me with this:
And PI trader Blind Chicken tagged me with this tip:
This commenter linked me to FiveThirtyEight’s advertising tracking board and sure enough, Steyer has been dumping millions of dollars into Nevada ad buys while competitors like Sen. Amy Klobuchar have spent a puny $60,000.
Here’s my strategy:
As I have said, it is really hard to predict how things are going to go in Nevada. It is actually really hard to predict the future anywhere. So I have been using a strategy so far in the early states of making lots of value buys and hoping for the best, which is what smart ppl call “EV+” plays. This is why I bet against Bernie in Iowa, for Pete in Iowa, and against Bernie in New Hampshire. All of the evidence is showing that voters are making up their minds extremely late — sometimes as they walk into the polls — which tells me that it is 100 percent a terrible idea to bet favorites more than one day out from the election, especially when their YES prices are as high 80 cents (Bernie in NV).
So here is what I am doing in Nevada:
(1) I bet YES that Tom Steyer places in the Top 3. I put in a bid on this at 16 cents that didn’t get filled, but since this fringe AF poll came out with him in 1st, I’ve actually felt better about it. So I pulled an alpha move and just bought in at 30 cents. I’m hoping to average this down if I get the chance later on — but my feeling is that the real value here 40-50 cents.
(2) I bet YES that Tom Steyer wins at 2 cents.
BUT WHO WILL WIN NEVADA????
(3) Since Nevada will be voting over the course of the next week, I’m going to wait to see some results trickle-in before betting. Yes, Bernie Sanders is the favorite here. Clearly the unions are scared of him and a caucus system favors a psychotically organized cult like his. But I would much rather make an 85 cent YES bet on Sanders later when I know he is going to win than make a 78 cent bet today while the race is still a huge black box.
So really I am doing two things: I am taking some long-odds bets that Tom Steyer is indeed piloting a political UFO that could abduct this election. But I am also patiently waiting for a chance to buy into a more conventional explanation — a Bernie Sanders win or a Joe Biden rally, for example — once the facts become more clear.