PODCAST: Bernie vs. Bloomberg in the Lone Star Primary
Political Animals,
Last week I went digging in the Texas red dirt for some intel on the Super Tuesday primary there. Welp, here you go. On this podcast, I interview Tom Holloway and Tim Glassco of The Cross Oak Group in Austin, Texas, who are two savage political operatives in the Texas Statehouse.
Tim is a former Obama guy. Tom used to move weight for the Speaker of the House in Austin. You can read their bios here.
Pod is available on iTunes, Stitcher, and Spotify. Or just stream it here.
Also be sure to check out our breakdown of February’s Dallas Morning News poll in TX.
KEENDAWG.
You want a breakdown of Texas politics? I’ll give you one. I’ve lived here my whole life, been active in the party and ran for office recently unsuccessfully. Once again I think it’s best to break it down by a few fundamental factors:
1. Texas democrats are broke. Close to 3/4 of the money in politics in the state historically goes to Republicans. The last quarter goes to corporate democrats who are basically Republicans from 1990.
2. Since the state is so expensive to advertise in because it’s so big it gives a huge advantage to money in politics. Moreso than almost any other state in the country. This is truly the home of billionaires which is why you find so many of them here as well as the home to more corporate headquarters than anywhere else in the country.
3. The politics of the state are driven primarily by race. Texas Democrats get about 20-25% of the white vote on average in this state. You combine that with 90% of the black vote and about 60% of the latino vote and that’s what the democratic party has to work with. Historically, Texas Republicans have done better with latinos because they are not overtly hostile to them on issues such as immigration.
4. Turnout in Texas is among the lowest in the nation. Texas is actually majority minority like California but doesn’t vote that way primarily because of turnout. Voter restrictions play a role for sure but turnout in general is the real reason Republicans don’t worry about losing power…yet. If latino turnout changes it could flip the state overnight. Many people thought Trump would compel latinos to come out in droves but it didn’t happen in 2016 so it’s hard to say what really will motivate them.
5. Most people don’t know this but Texas has a populist/libertarian streak in them. It goes back to our founding as a state. I can say that every long leader of Texas has something of a ‘good old boys’ feel. A man or woman can have it. In other words, if they think you’re really one of them it’s a little more important than policy within certain limits. Never forget LBJ one of the most liberal presidents and George W. Bush one of the most conservative ones both came from Texas.
As for the Democratic primary, my personal opinion is that it depends on how genuine Mike Bloomberg comes off. The problem is that unfortunately he made his money on wall street and is known for banning sodas and cigarettes in public places. I think if people in Texas know his real record then he is toast but no one can know for sure if they will know it because of all the ads Bloomberg is buying.
Bernie on the other hand is a little bit better fit fundamentally because he feels more like the guy you work with than your boss. He comes off more genuine and that counts for a lot this cycle but especially in Texas. I think that Bernie will sound radical to some older folks but it really depends on who comes out to vote. If latinos come out in force then I think Bernie easily carries the state.
As for Biden, I think he’s decently well liked in Texas but it really depends on how well he does in SC. If he does well there then it’s a three way race based on who shows up.
In summary, based on most of the projections being about who turns out I think the electorate will be far more favorable to Bernie than it was in 2016 especially with latinos and it will carry him to a victory. I think is Biden wins SC then he’s probably second followed by Bloomberg and Warren.