THREADSTER: Upping the Anti

Trump gropes American justice, Bloomberg gets his shot, and a conspiracy theory is born.

We must admit: we’re bored with politics. Or, at least, with political gambling. Our account is now cash-heavy because the available markets are uninspiring. Aside from the slow bludgeoning-to-death of Democratic hope, the only bright spot is the fast-moving drama whether William Barr will be the next cabinet secretary to resign. Barr’s scornful kibbitzing with American basics like trial-by-jury and the separation of powers has moved him past anonymous cabinetarians like Alex “Who?” Azar and Robert “Wendell” Wilkie into the Pompeoan stratosphere. He’s up 20-cents in the last seven days but seems to have leveled off after a week of “today’s the day” resignation rumor-mongering.

“Bill Barr is likely packing up his personal belongings as I write this comment,” says Melnick. “What a fitting end, to leave on acrimonious terms on Valentine’s Day.”

Which, of course, Barr didn’t, but the market still rose from 6- to 21-cents.

“Barr’s departure is imminent,” offered cr2000, who we suspect may be an only modestly successful experiment in artificial intelligence. “The moment his comments crossed on CNBC, I bought this market. I predict Barr resigns by President’s Day.”

Which he also didn’t, but the market squeaked up another few cents.

Trump, despite his Attorney General’s plea to not Tweet about their misbehavior, continued to very publicly move on the judicial system like a bitch, his breath sweetened by Tic Tacs and his hands groping at the nether-regions of American Democracy.

The market plateaued with Barr’s proximate demise at around 26-cents. It is apparently held-up by the fleeting chance that Barr himself will get tired of the kind of horrible press that makes the President tingle, and resign. Or, in a theory put forward by Doggiepuke, that Trump will follow the same nostalgic urge that recently led him to rehire Reince Priebus and Hope Hicks.

“President Trump needs to fire William Barr,” DoggiePuke says, “and get Matthew Whitaker back.”


It is unfair that Democrats have been able to enjoy the triggering effect of a theoretical Hillary Clinton candidacy on Republicans, while Republicans haven’t had an insane theory of their own with which to entice Democratic paranoids. We would thus like to thank ImTheWiz on the Female Vice President page for tossing a Republican political cadaver over the wall as bait for Democrats in search of something ridiculous to fixate on.

“Pence adds no value to the ticket,” writes the wonderful Wiz who was, “but Sarah Palin really energizes Trump’s base. I’m sure he’d want her on his stump.”

We could do 10 minutes on the phrase “he’d want her on his stump” but will pass because our larger point is that we would very much enjoy Palin’s political resurrection. We think everyone should work toward that end by inserting the winky former Alaskan Governor/Vice Presidential candidate/desperate camera chaser into every political discussion. MAKE THIS REAL, PEOPLE! The jokes, as those who never write jokes like to say, will write themselves.

We don’t believe Trump will draft Palin any more than we believe desperate Democrats will turn to Hillary Clinton for salvation. Palin is even more in the wilderness than Hill. Her YouTube channel has only 517 subscribers and a Google search of “What is Sarah Palin up to these days?” lands first on a six-month-old article about her pending divorce. That’s positively action-packed compared to her presence on the PredictIt boards, where there is no Palin talk at all on the Will Pence be Veep or Will the Republican Veep Nominee be a Woman markets.

Alas, people seem resigned to the monochromatic Pence, who if nothing else inspires this novel legal theory:

“If Pence stays on the ticket,” says KaiserCarl, making a very progressive, non-binary argument, “then this (VP is a woman) market resolves YES because Pence is a giant pussy.”


Is it too late to start a market on who President Trump is going to pardon next?


As we write, the political world awaits the first Democratic debate to include tiny billionaire Mike Bloomberg. I, personally, have sold all my Bloomberg stock at a tidy profit rather than enduring the risk that Dems who are in love with the idea of a White Knight to save them from themselves might not be all that enamored with the reality of this particularly white White Knight. As a New Yorker, Bloomberg can seem grating to normal people, and it’s hard to see him taking mid-America by storm.

On the will Bloomberg win a primary market, a game of cutthroat has broken out between three factions: pragmatists who like the idea of running a whole campaign on Bloomberg’s credit card,  Bernie Bros confident that prickish invective is an effective tool of persuasion, and Trumpers supremely confident that their champion will any day now walk across the Potomac River to vanquish the liberal vandals. We think their overconfidence implies opportunity in the 2020 winner market, where Trump YES is currently trading at what seems a mildly inflated 54-cents.

Cut through the Onanistic trollery and it comes down to a basic question about the effect of Wednesday’s debate on the market.

“Bloomberg will skyrocket here after the market sees how well he does in the debates,” insists our old friend FloatingStoat.

“Buy all the cheap ‘no’ you can before Wednesday night,” writes an apparently more pessimistic NickShadowen6060.

And there it is, the basic coin-toss upon which the destiny of Western Civilization hangs.

Who’s in?

If you follow @TomSayingThings on Twitter, he will buy you a car.

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