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Dear Political Animals,
Earlier this week I was making this soon-to-be Oscar-winning video and I came to aÂ bone fideÂ epiphany:
Per the above, the 2020 Democratic Primary is following the same plot as every epic fantasy movie ever. I am talking about classics like Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings, and Game of Thrones, where heroes must save the world from doom. Yes, one of the key features of every badass fantasy film is that the “Bad Guys” (Darth Vader, The White Walkers, etc.) are organized and on the march from the beginning, while the “Good Guys” (Luke, Frodo, Jon Snow) have to use all their energy squabbling over who will be in charge of a resistance that is guaranteed to get crushed if it doesn’t get its sh*t together ASAP.
In the case of the Democratic Presidential Primary, that is pretty much what we are seeing. I am not trying to judge but for the purposes of this metaphor, Bernie Sanders is the “Bad Guy.” He is on the march and has already conquered Iowa and New Hampshire. Nevada will probably fall this weekend and his Bernie Bros are banging on the door of neighboring California. Sanders is pulling this off because his opposition — the “Good Guys” (Biden, Klobuchar, Mayor Pete, and kinda Elizabeth Warren) are busy fighting over who has claim to the moderate throne and they are just not thinking big at all. Collectively, the Good Guys have 75 percent of the Democratic vote, but independently their chunks are much smaller. And with 25 percent support, Bernie is gobbling-up each state in four bites — one for each moderate’s tiny share of the vote.
BTW, about that. Super Tuesday is now less than two weeks away. It is the single biggest day of electoral primaries in history. Here are just four of the many states up for grabs: California, Texas, Massachusetts, and Tennessee. Many of these states have already started their early voting. So if someone doesn’t drop out really soon, this entire election could get away from the moderates fast.Â
Now back to The Lord of the Rings part of this. In a fantasy epic, this dark time for the “Good Guys” is usually when the super savior rolls in with his Jedi powers or flying dragons. But I am 99 percent sure that this is not going to happen for the Democrats and that a lot of their problems are because voters thought they deserved a poetic badass. The last best hope for this passed when Michael Bloomberg basically showed up at the Vegas Dem debate and said, “I just spent $400 million to gaslight you into thinking my campaign isn’t fake news. But it is.”
So what now?
It looks like some candidates are angling for a brokered convention. This is because if things stay on course, Bernie could walk into the DNC with the most votes, but not majority. Call it 30-40 percent, with the remaining 60-70 percent split between the field. But everyone who has ever seen a good fantasy movie knows that negotiating with the “Bad Guys” only leads to pain and suffering. Just ask Lando Calrissian (Star Wars), Gollum (The Lord of the Rings), or Theon (Game of Thrones). Lando lost his cloud city, Theon lost his dick, and Gollum wound up being vaporized inside hot lava. Woof.
That’s basically the fate that awaits an un-unified Dem field in Milwaukee. Do the Good Guys really think Bernie will let them steal his nomination at a brokered convention? Imagine that. Put on a flack jacket, brother, because there will be Bernie Bros rioting in every coffee shop in the USA. They might even vote for Trump (10 percent did last time). I personally think that the DNC will be much worried about those defections than the consequences of a Crazy Bernie vs. Mad King Trump matchup in November.
But hey — if you ask me — there’s still a plot twist left to come. I don’t think we’ll see Luke Skywalker show up anytime soon, but maybe some old geiser like Obi Wan Kenobi aka Joe Biden has enough juice left in his wizard staff for one last act; or perhaps the Dems will pick a steward like Amy Klobuchar who can just chill things out. We’ll see. But it’s going to be a bumpy ride.