The South: Post-Buttigieg, Will Biden Butt-In?
If you are just losing your mind over Super Tuesday and Pete Buttigieg pulling an Irish Goodbye on the Dem Primary, then you need to chill the f*ck out. The first reason why is that you can buy some Xany bars off of most teenagers for 20 dollars and they are very effective at dealing with anxiety. The second reason why is that you are reading Star Spangled Gamblers and I am the #1 genius in the world, so I got you.
BTW these are the states voting tomorrow:
But this post is going to focus on VIRGINIA and NORTH CAROLINA.
Everyone knows that white people love Mayor Pete. The haters even call him “Mayo Pete.” But another fact that has been overlooked is that basically zero white people have voted for Joe Biden so far. He has been losing over-educated whites to Elizabeth Warren, who is pretty much their Tim Tebow; he has been losing rural whites and people who have Peleton bikes/Equinox memberships to Mayor Pete; and Bernie Sanders has just been vaporizing everyone with young people of all races.
The question is: who will all of Mayo Pete’s whites vote for now that he is gone? Well, Morning Consult polled this a few days ago. Here’s their answer:
Yes, Bernie tops the field by a hair. But keep in mind that this is a national poll and Super Tuesday’s primaries are regional races. And these races are weighted towards the South, which is historically prejudiced against: (1) socialists; (3) New Yorkers; and (3) Jews (Bernie!). So my hunch is that Bernie Sanders is not as popular as a second choice for Buttigieg voters in North Carolina and Virginia. I think a lot more will break Biden and Bloomberg’s way than Bernie’s. This is really important bc — check out these RCP averages again:
The race between Biden and Bernie in North Carolina has been walking a knife’s edge. And if you believe South Carolina’s results, Pete’s got the biggest possible pot of white voters to give:
This is big news for Uncle Joe. A Buttigieg-Biden merger is just a savage opportunity to combine white and black voters into a political death machine that can rival Bernie’s.
Now to Virginia–
Ignore the topline. Virginia is almost certainly tilting towards Biden now that he has won South Carolina and gotten everyone in the Fake News Media (FNM) to spend the whole weekend crowing about how he is back and bigger than ever.
Lastly, there is this. Virginia alpha Dems Sen. Tim Kaine, ex-Governor Terry McAuliffe, and Rep. Jennifer Wexton have all endorsed Joe Biden in the last three days. I honestly have no clue why these pols would suddenly jump on the Biden bandwagon if they weren’t convinced he was going to win. These people know more about the race in their home state than we do. And I am going to follow suit.
I now own:
YES Joe Biden wins Virginia at 72 cents
I want to buy YES on him in North Carolina but am hoping I can get in under 80 cents when (if?) things calm down.