Texas is Complicated

I have just been getting mobbed by you animals whooping and hollering at me for answers about who is going to win Texas on Super Tuesday.

I personally like to stick to the facts when I talk about gambling recklessly. And the facts are that the Texas Democratic Primary tomorrow is going to have more crosswinds blowing through it than the Panhandle in an F5 twister.

Bernie Sanders vs. Joe Biden in Texas is going to be the single best matchup in the Lone Star State’s history since Vince Young vs. Reggie Bush in 2006.

VY rose bowl

Let me state some important information now:

There has been a total gusher of early votes in Texas. Like beyond record shattering. But we do not know much more than that. Basically, my political antenna has detected a massive attack of first time voters on the radar scope, but we have no idea who they are and who are they are planning to vote for. Here is a grid of the major Texas counties that I am tracking. Notice how huge the boost in early voting numbers is:

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR6phW6dLMgK2TsAAlI2cfQ74onz23dCvyzCtxP7UD_p2M5KezB504_OfqBGlpdnYAWrzRxTm9MakAr/pubhtml” query=”widget=true&headers=false” /]

There are two possible explanations for this bump in turnout. The first one is that Latinos, who usually turn out in numbers for Texas elections with less frequency than I turn out for Chuck E Cheese birthday parties without taking ecstasy, might be showing up in a big way. We know that this scenario favors Bernie Sanders, who pretty much nuked everyone in the field with the Hispanic demo in Nevada.

The second explanation is that Republicans are crossing over to vote in the Democratic Primary. Texas is a state that allows anyone from any party to participate, so get woke to this possibility. There are decent odds that the same GOP voters who booted people like Rep. Pete Sessions and Rep. John Culberson are going to keep drinking the Blue Kool Aid this primary season. And tbh, I will eat my shoe if a single one of them votes for Bernie Sanders. This scenario would look great for Biden. 

So like I said, the Keendawg Political Radar has detected a massive attack in Texas. But it’s going to take some more information to discern its size, direction, and objective. That’s where this chart comes in. Re-pasting it here:

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR6phW6dLMgK2TsAAlI2cfQ74onz23dCvyzCtxP7UD_p2M5KezB504_OfqBGlpdnYAWrzRxTm9MakAr/pubhtml” query=”widget=true&headers=false” /]

If turnout in the Rio Grande Valley, San Antonio, and Austin pumps, we know that the Bernie Bros and Los Hermanos de Bernie, are coming out in force. Advantage Sanders.

If turnout in Collin, Tarrant, and Denton Counties runs away, then we are almost certainly seeing Republicans packing the polls for Biden. As many of you have pointed out to me throughout this primary, my bias has been to short Bernie, which is where some of my money is now. I also am hedged the other way, with Biden taking 2nd in the primary. This scenario is more likely from the perspective of math, since more than a million Texans have already voted. Basically, I am going to wait to see the returns come in and be prepared to reverse these positions with very little warning. The Keendawg Early Warning Radar should be able to tell us a lot about what, if any advantage these two candidates have. Also, there is the chance that both situations are happening, in which case this election is going to be seriously difficult to forecast.

So long story short, gotta staid glued to the scope.



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2 thoughts on “Texas is Complicated

  1. Early voting ended last Friday before the SC primary here in Texas. Historically, about 2/3rd’s of the vote is cast before election day. These tend to be older and more pro-Biden type of folks. The same is true across the country. I read a report a little while ago that by the end of Super Tuesday, something like 60-70% of the ballots will have been cast. That means Bernie’s delegate lead is already mostly in the bag. You add in the fact that Buttigieg and Klobuchar are still on the ballot in these places and I think Bernie is a pretty safe bet in Texas. Yes, people are rallying around Joe but I think it’s too late mostly. Bernie will have a plurality. The only questions left is how big it will be and whether the DNC tries to steal it from Bernie.

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