Five days ago I got the following email, which I ignored because I was in Charleston getting an old-fashioned Corona virus with the boys.
From boy genius Tucker:
Ordinarily I would have paid attention but by Sunday I was dealing with some serious Corona virus symptoms including pounding headache, blood shot eyes, and nausea. Needless to say it took more than a few slices of pizza to get over this one. But it was totally my loss because it turns out that Tucker is an absolute boy genius. Tucker predicted that Amy Klobuchar would win MN (sorta hit) and Bernie would lose (huge alpha cash daddy win). And he nailed this take about Steve Bullock that was a massive underdog. See below.
FROM TUCKER, WHO IS THE #1 GENIUS IN THE GAME RIGHT NOW:
There are two things to consider when making a bet on PredictIt. What is the price now, and what should the price be? The bigger the gap, the more profit to be made. I believe there is a mighty big gap in this market that is just waiting to be exploited.
Quick background: Steve Bullock is the current Governor of Montana and was one of the early presidential candidates in the race. He has since dropped out.
Many Yes buyers will disagree with me on this. But remember this: I’m not saying that No is a “definitely gonna happen” thing, I’m saying it’s a “40Y/60N” kinda thing. I hope that I can prove to you that the odds in this market are very, very skewed right now and certainty is far from certain.
Evidence In Favor of Bullock Running
There is some evidence of Bullock running, including this very vague and unhelpful tweet shared in the comments by user RJ20151, who most likely uses Bruh Sound Effect #44 as his ringtone.
Like, bruh, we knew the deadline. smh. But there are 2 real reasons that the price is sky-high.
A lot of the comments are saying that this is insider trading, and it may be that. But if every odd pump was insider trading, Clinton would be the Dem Nominee with Kamala as Veep. It could just be someone that thought it was going to happen, and then people jumped on the bandwagon.
3 Days ago, the New York Times released this article, which pushed this market into the 90s.
Hear that? “Poised” is the big catch. He’s not doing it yet, but he’s “poised”, which is entirely subjective and backed by a lack of real evidence. Of course, the media jumped on this immediately, led by pinnacles of journalistic integrity CNN and The Hill.
This is it. That’s all behind a 90c+ price. But what evidence do we have that he won’t run?
Evidence Against Bullock Running
Bullock said he won’t run. He said when he dropped out he won’t run. He even had the perfect opportunity to start his campaign at a farewell rally last week.
NO is an amazing bet here, considering the evidence. I would probably wait for a swing under 10, if possible. I think this is a very good value, considering the flimsiness (is that a word?) of the evidence.
Then he tweets me today that:
And this happens to the marketplace:
Needless to say, Tucker, you now have my attention. DM me and I will register this whole blog in your name because you are the real genius here.