Where the Cash At? It’s Win or Go Home for Bernie.
Alright boys, it is win or go home for Bernie Sanders tonight in Michigan. Total elimination game. If Sanders bombs this one then goodbye Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York– which Joe Biden has basically already locked-up anyway (thank you for your donations, Berners).
Sanders is also scheduled to lose a bunch of other primaries and possibly eek-out a win or two in the West. Let’s get the basics done then talk about that cash.
Here the states voting today in which Joe Biden is polling with at least a double-digit lead:
Missouri – Biden +28
Michigan – Biden +23
Mississippi – Biden +47
Here are three states that used to be gimmes for Bernie and are now looking treacherous:
North Dakota – Biden +35 (*only one poll tho)
Idaho – Biden +9.5 (only two polls tho)
Washington – Biden +2.7
Before Super Tuesday, I figured that ID, WA, and ND would be total cupcakes for Sanders. Now they look like death traps. If you ask me, the only primary in the whole bunch that Bernie can still win is Washington where there is a big enough population of young people, bra burners, and actual socialists to carry him through. I am still holding my YES position on him there.
Here is where I am parking my dough across the rest of the map:
MICHIGAN MARGIN OF VICTORY
I am taking >10 percent. Biden is up, on average, 23 points in the polls. Self-explanatory.
MISSOURI
Just taking Biden for the win here at 96. For some reason I didn’t get into this market sooner. Whatever, it’s free cash.
MISSOURI TURNOUT
Right now this is a 60/40 bet by I think it should be 99/1. At least 70/30. I’m betting that NO, turnout does not equal or exceed 2016’s. That race between Clinton and Sanders was contentious. This race is already settled, both nationally and in Missouri. Biden is going to win both and by a lot. Plus there are coronavirus fears to mess with voters’ desire to be in crowded public places. Check this chart I made out:
| Cycle | Status | Candidates | Turnout | MOV | Winner |
| 2000 | Layup | 2 | 265000 | 31 | Al Gore |
| 2004 | Contested | 6 | 418,000 | 26 | John Kerry |
| 2008 | Contested | 2 | 827,000 | 1.4 | Barack Obama |
| 2016 | Contested | 2 | 629,000 | 0.25 | Hillary Clinton |
Obviously voters in Missouri know when their vote counts — and are much more likely to participate in a tight election. I bought a tranche at 50 and will keep buying up to 70.
There you have it.
KEENDAWG.
