Gonna keep this short and sweet. There is finally a PredictIt market on when the Senate will pass the CARES Act, which is what the highly creative people in the government are calling the coronavirus relief package. Probably brought to you by the same geniuses who came up with the names for “Operation Iraqi Freedom” and “Operation Just Cause.”
Anyway, this bill is going to pass the Senate today and even if it does not, there are a lot of ways to guarantee a profit in this marketplace. I will lay them out here but I personally think there is a 100 percent chance that the CARES Act passes the Senate before the sun comes up tomorrow (Wednesday). The only question is if the vote commences before midnight. This would be a savage rules cuck if it happened, so beware.
REMEMBER HOW CONGRESS THINKS:
- This bill has to be done and signed before the weekend.
- The House may not be able to get a Unanimous Consent agreement to pass it. This means the Senate needs to leave at least two working days for House passage (one for travel, one for voting).
- So the latest this can pass is Wednesday. That gets the bill done by Friday.
- BTW don’t expect the Senate to use 30 hours of cloture debate time. They’ll UC this to the floor and at the worst will pass with a few hours of debate, like they did with the 2008 TARP bailout.
Bet NO on passage later than March 27 (Friday) ~ 92 cents
Bet YES on Today and Tomorrow ~ 82 cents
ALPHA AF MONEY
Bet YES on March 24, today ~ 30 cents.
I am taking a modified Alpha AF strategy.
- I am buying YES shares on today (my avg cost is 25)
- I am buying NO shares on Friday or later (avg cost is 91 cents for me).
- As long I buy this in the right ratio, it is a free bet on the CARES Act passing today. Again, 100 percent chance it’s done before the weekend. So any losses I could take today I will make back when it passes tomorrow.
Also Sen Schumer already said today that there is “nothing” that can’t be overcome in “the next few hours.” And Trump does not give a crap about policy so he will just tell Cocaine Mitch to pass whatever he has at the end of the day. And Cocaine Mitch will listen to Il Duce aka Donald Trump due to the fact that Mitch is up for re-election this year. Therefore he does not want to be named an Enemy of the People in one of Trump’s insane press conferences, and he also no longer has the President’s balls in a vice due to the fact that the impeachment trial is over.
There you have it. You have zero excuses to lose money in this market. Thank God you the know the Keendawg.