The only thing that makes me wet the bed more often than Bush Light is knowing that in order to make serious cash on PredictIt, you have to take some unpopular positions. Here are two soon-to-be very unpopular bets that I have made in the recent weeks:
The MA Senate Primary: Sen. Ed Markey vs. Rep. Joe Kennedy
I have been betting against Joe Kennedy winning this race for a few reasons:
- I honestly think that people are jealous and don’t want to give Kennedy a Senate seat based on his name and extremely good looks. He is pretty much the Duke Basketball of Senate hopefuls.
- If this turns into a mail-in election, do young people who would vote for Kennedy even know how to use the Postal Service?
- Ed Markey has been around for a while and has plenty of friends to call for help. Also lots of incumbents are circling the wagons for him with endorsements so that they are not the next to get attacked by some squirt like Kennedy who has a fancy name.
- Joe Kennedy is easily the whitest person in politics. On some level, that has to hurt his appeal to the superficial woke voters who helped send Alex Ocasion-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley to Washington.
- BTW, before I ever had this blog, I turned $10 into $30 betting on Ayanna Pressley to win her primary against incumbent Michael Capuano. So I do not have establishment glasses on.
- Polls show this race tightening up.
My average no price on Kennedy is 39 cents. If this shifts much more in my favor, then I’m gonna sell.
The Vice Presidential Race – Is Andrew Cuomo Really Fake News?
There are a lot of takes floating around about the VP campaign. We have discussed them in this blog and on our podcast.
But if the presidential race is still being dominated by the coronavirus this summer, there is a good chance that Joe Biden will pick a running mate who is responsive to that need. I personally think people are stuck in 2019 mode and are just getting huge boners for running mates based on their race and gender. I also think it is a lunatic move to buy Kamala Harris at 30 cents because basically the only reason Biden would pick her is to check a few boxes for the PC warriors.
The flip side is that I took a flyer on 300 shares of Andrew Cuomo for VP at 1 cent. This bet would pay-off in the highly unlikely scenario that voters decide that they want to elect people who are actually good at their jobs. This would be a major departure from the post-2015 POTUS model, which puts a huge premium on candidates like Trump, Cruz, Harris, Sanders and Warren who have great social media game and are world class at connecting with people and making them feel like victims.
Anyway, there is always a remote chance that we will go back to the obsolete model of the presidency where we pick leaders based on their experience and not the size of their Instagram following. There is an even more remote chance that Andrew Cuomo would even want the VP job. But when I add the two together, I like my chances of catching a pump on PredictIt when some future news story bids this price up to 4-8 cents. If that day comes, I look forward to being rich AF.