TIPS FROM THE BOYS: 2020 May Be the Hottest Year Yet
Animals,
As I love to say, my favorite thing in the world is to hear from you about what trades you are watching and how you are focusing your genius. I hope all of you will hit me in my DMs or on the contact section of this website to tell me what you are fired-up about.
On that note, I recently heard from trader JLoschen, who has a huge bone for this market:
According to JLoschen, this is probably going to be the hottest year on record. I personally am excited about this for a few reasons.
The first one is that I cannot wait to go back to the beach and start cranking Modelos again. This has been impossible to do lately, due to the fact that Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti aka Whitey has roped-off the beaches in SoCal to prevent people from getting the coronavirus by being outdoors and outside of their crowded apartments. If the ice caps melt then obviously the ocean will come a little closer and surpass the barricades that Whitey has put up. This would be great news for summer in SoCal.
Secondly, I think it would be great news for NASA to have a hot year. This is because we are not currently doing anything in space other than stroking Elon Musk’s dong.
So global warming would def give the people at NASA something to do. Maybe if someone can finally prove that it is real then they will learn how to grow corn on Mars.
I personally am not going to wait on that. So I am excited about JLoeschen’s trade to bet on climate change. It is honestly a huge relief for me because it has gotten very hard to benefit from damaging the environment ever since oil went to the crapper.
Here we go.
From: JLoeschen:
Got a tip for the market ‘Will 2020 be the hottest year’. As I write this it’s trading at about $0.50, however the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmosperic Administration) has crunched the numbers through March and they give 2020 a 75% chance of being the hottest year. 2016 is the current reigning hottest year and I think the market’s logic for 50/50 is because year to date 2020 is only the 2nd hottest year, 2016 was actually hotter through March.
However what I don’t think the market is factoring in is that 2016 had El Nino in affect in the beginning of the year and then it got significantly cooler later in the year when El Nino ended. So even though 2020 is only the 2nd hottest through the first 3 months, it is easily on pace to be the hottest year on record. I know this global warming market is a little different than your usual political market and it is a long wait to pay off but what I like about the market is that it’s pretty easy to figure out where the +EV is. NOAA will update their percent likelihood that 2020 is the hottest year monthly at the below link so you can just check that once per month and decide for yourself if the market is worth getting into or if it’s not worth the time for a whale like yourself 😉 Also full disclosure, I’m max yes and have sells set in the $0.70’s.
NOAA saying 2020 has 75% of being hottest year:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202003/supplemental/page-2
Market (trading at $0.50):
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6234/Will-NASA-find-2020%E2%80%99s-global-average-temperature-highest-on-record
What do you think?
KEENDAWG.
