NEWSLETTER: My Boldest Prediction Ever — Election No Longer a Layup for Biden
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I know that it is technically rude to brag but I am going to do a victory lap for a second here. But don’t worry, it is really just the setup for some truly ridiculous predictions.
So far, this blog has done a way better job of predicting the coronavirus than the experts at CNN have. No, I have not made any meaningful contributions to the field of medicine or epidemiology, but so far we have nailed these things:
- We made monetizable predictions on what exact date Congress would pass a relief bill, whether or not President Trump would fire any of his top advisors, and which Democratic primaries would get canceled and which ones would go forward.
But we also predicted some stranger things in our culture that are coming to fruition. For example, three weeks ago our newsletter featured a bunch of gibberish about how, “The more likely course for the war on COVID-19 is that of the war in Vietnam. An idiotic and preventable conflict that everyone, from the White House down, knew we could have avoided. The similarities donâ€™t end there.”
Imagine my surprise when I started seeing these takes in the Fake News Media (FNM) this week.
And a few other bozos in the FNM took issue with our take:
Whatever, bro. I’m here everyday cranking Modelos and nuking betting lines by being right about this ish.
So with that as prologue, I will now make an even bolder prediction about the future: I think that in the last week, the presidential election has gone from an absolute layup for Joe Biden, to an absolute Battle of the Bulge-level grinder. Here’s why.
There are a lot of people who rightfully think that a radioactive economy and a terrible disaster like the coronavirus means that Trump’s re-election hopes are more dead than the last Men in Black sequel. But be careful. The chain of events unfolding right now has the potential to create a hilariously unlucky electoral landscape for Democrats this year, just like it did in 2016.
First, Joe Biden is old AF. In the early primaries, I personally got the impression that Biden’s polling numbers tanked the second he showed up in person and people got a look at him for the first time since Obama. Grandfather Time has really caught up to Uncle Joe, and Mayor Pete, Bernie, and Amy Klobuchar caught a windfall because of it.
Second, China is going to be on the ballot in November, and not in the way that people thought it would a year ago, when Trump’s tarfifs were costing him more votes in the Midwest than his two divorces.
Now China is on the ballot because it is where the coronavirus came from and is also where it was incubated thanks to the Xi regime’s cover-ups and incompetence. There is also a non-zero chance that we’ll find out this disease actually escaped from a virology lab in Wuhan and accidentally turned into the world’s most successful biological warfare weapon since trans fats.
This could be big trouble for Uncle Joe. Biden, the former Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has a long history of being a globalist who is soft on China. Also his son, Hunter, received a savagely lucrative contract with some Chinese oligarchs at the same time that he inked his controversial one in the Ukraine.
These issues are ones where Trump is very well-equipped to take on Biden because (1) Trump was a major prick to China for a lot of his first term (some bloopers in there too, obvi); and (2) Trump is petty AF and will not be afraid to drag the whole Biden family into the mud with some low-blows, even if they are factually dubious.
Long story short, there is a situation where Trump’s missteps in China are neutralized by Biden’s own history there– or that Trump actually looks good in comparison to the former Veep. Yikes.
Third, for some reason, sex scandals just never stick to Donald Trump. Maybe this is because he became America’s favorite alpha male in the ’80s due to the fact that he was constantly banging actresses and models that average Joes wished they could smash. Ergo, the fact that Trump is a charlatan is baked into his public image. People pretty much expect him to act like a skeezy reality TV host/Atlantic City casino owner/boxing promoter/two-time divorcÃ©e. Everyone knows that Trump is basically just making up the Presidency as he goes along and is completely a shipwreck of a leader.
In a weird way, this could be bad news for Joe Biden in the upside-down reality we are living through right now. I personally do not know anything about the Biden-Tara Reade sex scandal (is it legit or is it Right Wing payback for Brett Kavanaugh?) and I highly doubt we’ll ever get to the bottom of it, but the fact that Joe Biden’s campaign is built on him being trustworthy and competent could turn into a huge liability. Donald Trump is not Abraham Lincoln, but Joe Biden is not Barack Obama. If this becomes a mud slinging election debating whose character is more bankrupt, Trump gets the edge. No one expects anything of Trump. He can go as low as he wants. He can accuse Biden of sexual assault and be immune to the counter charge because for some reason, that is just what Trump excels at. Biden is basically going to have to fight Trump with an arm tied behind his back, because his reputation is his whole campaign pitch. And now his reputation is what’s in danger.
So yep — we could be in for a more interesting election than anyone thought. I’m not gonna tell you that Trump is the favorite (I am currently betting the other way) — but people who think this one is in the bag for Biden are playing the numbers. Sometimes it’s smarter to play the man.
1 thought on “NEWSLETTER: My Boldest Prediction Ever — Election No Longer a Layup for Biden”
I never could make a bet on Biden, even when it all seemed obvious that he would be the nominee or when he was the one most likely to be anointed by the establishment when Bernie was riding high. It’s because Biden’s campaign is built on such a soft foundation. Fundamentally, Biden is exactly the wrong guy for this moment. This one will be very close just like 2016. The road to the white house once again goes through Pennsylvania which currently favors Biden but I don’t know if it will hold. I think this election ends up looking a lot like 2016 with different state margins and AZ going Democratic. Trump was at 46 percent on election day in 2016 to win this thing by the closest margin ever. That’s just 4 points higher than his current average. It feels nerve racking, just like 2016.