Late last night, I received a story from Pratik that is 100 percent fake news. The point of it is that he does not think it is a good time to bet on whether or not the Democratic National Convention will happen.
Honestly, the only explanation I have for his take is that people in Rhode Island are addicted to crazy pills, because I have no idea why you wouldn’t be buying the underdog YES position in this market which should be a 55/45 in its favor.
This is absolutely a Rules Cuck Panther situation and you do not want to be on the wrong side of this beast. I have gotten mauled by it before and I personally did not enjoy it. Here’s how to stay out in front of him.
PredictIt’s rules for whether or not the DNC happens are pretty interesting. They say that:
The key part is that Joe Biden only has to give an acceptance speech from the arena where the Milwaukee Bucks lose all their games before November 1. No one has to be there, there can be zero balloons and people in funny hats clapping. Uncle Joe (or any Dem Nominee, you pyschos) just has to accept his nomination at the Fiserv Center. Here is why I think it is seriously boneheaded not to be betting YES on that outcome:
(1) The odds that Dems don’t nominate their guy by Nov 1 are basically zero. What are they going to do, put Joe Biden on a month-to-month trial right up until the week of the election? Dems obviously have to crown their king at some point.
(2) Have you not watched every Olympic games, World Cup, and/or March Madness final in history? Whenever ESPN covers a big game at a neutral site, you can count on seeing a cut-away shot where the supporters of UNC or Michael Phelps are sitting around in their home stadium to watch their hero(es) competing far away. They just sit around clapping like crazy people while the game is beamed-in to the jumbotron.
For example, here are some Baltimore fans watching Michael Phelps swim from M&T Bank Stadium:
Here are U.S. Open champion Juan Martin del Potro’s fans watching from his hometown tennis courts during a Grand Slam final:
Here are English soccer fan watching their team inside a bar:
The point is that there are lots of clever ways to showcase Democratic Party delegates congregating in safe, plague-proof numbers in disparate locations. Just imagine a movie theater in every state, containing that state’s delegates, roaring and applauding for Joe Biden while he gives his speech at Fiserv Stadium.
(3) The Democrats still have to win Wisconsin. Biden has to kick-off his campaign somewhere, so what is the value in basically ball-tapping the first state they need to flip in November? Imagine this press release: “Sorry Wisconsin, we thought it would be better to launch our campaign in Joe’s basement or perhaps at a 7-Eleven in Scranton, PA.”
Doing that would be a bigger unforced error than accidentally getting into a three-way gay marriage with Joe Exotic for the free meth.
(4) This market feels like it has found its bottom and is headed back up. Look at this chart:
(5) The only real danger is if Biden accepts the nomination at some place humble, like a donut shop in town, instead of Fiserv. But that looks and sounds weak AF. How do you nominate someone at a JV location like that? The sweet spot might be a low-cost option like a hotel or hospital. I still expect to see the grandeur of a typical campaign launch but maybe not with actual people. That makes the biggest vulnerability for YES the expense of this venue, and not COVID itself. Itâ€™s hard to justify the $$$ outlay for an empty NBA arena.
Even though there is a slim chance that tens of thousands of people will travel to Milwaukee for the DNC this summer, I still think there is around a 55 percent chance that Joe Biden will kick off his campaign from the Fiserv stage. I’m holding YES at 36 cents and would be comfortable buying all the way up to the current price. I’ll start taking profits around 49 and re-evaluate.
Pratik, Zoltar and I discuss this and the many arguments in either direction, on our most recent podcast. BTW, they don’t agree with me. And Pratik is going to be post some fake news about why.