The market on whether the Democratic Party will hold its convention at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is trading in the mid-40s.
Unlike Keendawg, I think itâ€™s too early to get into this market. And it may never be worth it.
The Democratsâ€™ decision, in my view, will be made in response to the Republicansâ€™.
Trump and the GOP have a tough decision. They face five competing pressures:
(1)Â Â Older Voters: Indications that Trump is not taking the COVID-19 threat seriously could hurt him among the older voters he needs to win in key states.
(2)Â Â Anti-Lockdown Activists: Republican-leaning voters appear to be relatively skeptical about the lockdowns and outspoken in protesting them.
(3)Â Â The Need for a Consistent Narrative: Even as Trump’s overall policy approach to the COVID-19 challenge is within the mainstream of public opinion, his approval ratings betray doubts about his leadership. Trump and the Republican Party are struggling to define a narrative about the Presidentâ€™s approach. Is he striking a prudent, middle way between protecting the countryâ€™s health and its economy? Or is he a wartime leader who confronted China and took strong measures to bring the virus to heel?
(4)Â Â A Hostile Media: Even if the Republican Party makes a reasonable decision to hold its convention and carries it out in a responsible way, the media will seize on any incidents of COVID-19 at the event and try to scapegoat Trump.
(5)Â Â Trumpâ€™s Star Power: Trumpâ€™s greatest skill is his commanding TV presence. Denying him the opportunity to be the star of a national convention will diminish his ability to turn around a status quo that probably does not favor him.
Biden has shown little indication that he wants to take a strong position on the COVID-19 crisis. More likely than not, he will choose the safest, least controversial path that allows him to contrast his competent, scientifically-grounded approach to Trumpâ€™s.
Zoltar said on ourÂ recent podcastÂ that he is watching certain indicators, such as the opening of Broadway, sporting events, and movie theaters:
I think Zoltar is smart to wait, but Iâ€™m also skeptical that there will ever be a good time to get into this market.
The main reason is that, in light of all the logistical considerations involved in planning this kind of an event, a lot of people will know the answer well before even a discerning trader can piece it all together.
More likely than not, I will wait until the answer becomes obvious and maybe pick up a few shares in the low 90s.
Listen to the whole podcast here:
Pratik Chougule is a contributor to Star Spangled GamblersÂ and author of the e-bookÂ How to Make Money from Political Predictions: A Guide to Generating High, Steady Returns on PredictIt.