The market on whether the Democratic Party will hold its convention at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is trading in the mid-40s.
Unlike Keendawg, I think it’s too early to get into this market. And it may never be worth it.
The Democrats’ decision, in my view, will be made in response to the Republicans’.
Trump and the GOP have a tough decision. They face five competing pressures:
(1) Older Voters: Indications that Trump is not taking the COVID-19 threat seriously could hurt him among the older voters he needs to win in key states.
(2) Anti-Lockdown Activists: Republican-leaning voters appear to be relatively skeptical about the lockdowns and outspoken in protesting them.
(3) The Need for a Consistent Narrative: Even as Trump’s overall policy approach to the COVID-19 challenge is within the mainstream of public opinion, his approval ratings betray doubts about his leadership. Trump and the Republican Party are struggling to define a narrative about the President’s approach. Is he striking a prudent, middle way between protecting the country’s health and its economy? Or is he a wartime leader who confronted China and took strong measures to bring the virus to heel?
(4) A Hostile Media: Even if the Republican Party makes a reasonable decision to hold its convention and carries it out in a responsible way, the media will seize on any incidents of COVID-19 at the event and try to scapegoat Trump.
(5) Trump’s Star Power: Trump’s greatest skill is his commanding TV presence. Denying him the opportunity to be the star of a national convention will diminish his ability to turn around a status quo that probably does not favor him.
Biden has shown little indication that he wants to take a strong position on the COVID-19 crisis. More likely than not, he will choose the safest, least controversial path that allows him to contrast his competent, scientifically-grounded approach to Trump’s.
Zoltar said on our recent podcast that he is watching certain indicators, such as the opening of Broadway, sporting events, and movie theaters:
I think Zoltar is smart to wait, but I’m also skeptical that there will ever be a good time to get into this market.
The main reason is that, in light of all the logistical considerations involved in planning this kind of an event, a lot of people will know the answer well before even a discerning trader can piece it all together.
More likely than not, I will wait until the answer becomes obvious and maybe pick up a few shares in the low 90s.
Listen to the whole podcast here:
Pratik Chougule is a contributor to Star Spangled Gamblers and author of the e-book How to Make Money from Political Predictions: A Guide to Generating High, Steady Returns on PredictIt.