Those of you who are true ride-or-dies know that we have been spitting takes like crazy on our podcast and not all of them show up in the written form of this blog. That said, I am going to address a few trades where I am changing positions in this piece to get everyone on the same page.
VICE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
I have been a total psycho for Amy Klobuchar as the frontrunner on this blog and that is well-known. But on our podcasts I have regularly been saying that buying and holding a candidate is a terrible idea. There is just too much liquidity and volatility to miss out on chances to profit from short-term pops and drops in candidates across the board. Check out this surfing safari:
I still like Amy to win it, but I have been churning YES shares of some of the fringe AF candidates too. In particular, I’ve been buying Kamala Harris at 27 and selling her at 32; as well as buying Stacy Abrams at 8 and selling her at 11; and buying Warren at 11 and selling her at 15. I’m holding Klobuchar shares at an average cost of 21 and have sell orders set at 27. I will definitely be churning these if given the chance, because it is pretty obvious that I’ll be able to buy shares back cheaply for whoever I want, whenever I want.
CA-25 SPECIAL ELECTION
This is the race to replace Rep. Katie Hill (D) who flipped a long-held Republican seat in LA’s desert suburbs in 2018. In case you missed it, Rep. Hill had a marriage that was even more confusing than the Tiger King’s and just like him, she was also boning one of her employees.
She has since resigned due to scandal surrounding a “Throuple” relationship with her ex-husband and a campaign staffer.
Now the contest to replace Rep. Hill is between Christy Smith (D) and Mike Garcia (R), with the early advantage favoring Republicans.
I’ve said in a few forums that I am not optimistic about Republicans winning back any seats in California this cycle, including CA-25. But I have had a major wedgie about this race for a while. This is due to the fact that CA-25 is arguably the perfect place for Republicans to stage a counter attack against the Democrats. This is due to the HUGE military presence in the Mojave Desert (Mike Garcia is a retired fighter pilot) and the fact that by most reports, Christy Smith is a total zero and a borderline Martha Coakley-bad candidate. Also, Garcia is Latino, like 38 percent of the district, and as I have said, Christy Smith stinks.
Also, due to the coronavirus, in person voting and same-day voter registration are going to be extremely limited. This is bad news for turning out young voters and dead voters, both of which lean heavily Democratic in California. Also, there is a lot of confusion over whether or not ballot harvesting is legal during California’s stay-at-home order. As most of you know, Republicans specialize in buying votes and Democrats specialize in stealing them. With these means of stealing votes severely depressed, yet another weapon has been robbed from Christy Smith’s arsenal. This will matter in a tight race.
Lastly, I was checking on the Internet and realized that Mike Garcia is actually not running as a Republican. Apparently he is running on the ticket of an obscure political party I have never even heard of. That party is called the “Fighter Pilot Party”.
What a savage way to beat the stigma of “Republican,” which in California is synonymous with “douchebag loser.”
A while ago, I had wanted to buy Mike Garcia to win this thing but lacked the balls to bet against a major trend — the GOP getting destroyed in the suburbs and being rejected by Latinos. Now with the odds at 65/35 in Garcia’s favor, I am still unwilling to take that risk. Yeah, I think he’s going to win. But part of locking-in consistent returns on PredictIt is not taking a large, wholesale losses. That’s the risk here.
I bought Christy Smith to win at 60 cents. I sold her at a loss at 51. I’m out for now.