One of the most popular things for people to do on PredictIt is to pump the idea that either: (1) Mike Pompeo is going to run for Senate; or (2) he is going to resign from office due to ______ scandal, which would trigger these two markets.
I personally am an expert on this because I fell for the original Mike Pompeo pump while visiting Toon Town aka Washington, D.C. this past September. While I was there, a bunch of Republican staffers sold me on how he was going to resign ASAP to run for Jerry Moran’s senate seat back in Kansas. Then John Bolton got fired by Trump and Mike Pompeo gave this press conference about it:
Which honestly reminded me of an NFL post-game from Pete Carroll after beating the 49ers at home. It was the happiest I have ever seen a politician in my life. Despite losing all my money, I learned a few important lessons from getting spoofed by Mike Pompeo:
(1) Mike Pompeo never had any interest in running for senate and was just using the threat as leverage for Trump to fire his arch enemy, John Bolton.
(2) The fastest way to know what is going to happen in Washington, D.C., is to ask Republican staffers for their predictions and then bet on the exact the opposite.
But the more I have thought about it, the more I have realized something else important. Despite what people say about Pompeo possibly having a dream to be the President, there is no reason to think that the Oval Office is on his mind right now. A guy who is as powerful of a cabinet member as Pompeo would never look at a senate seat as a promotion. That would be like the CFO of a Fortune 500 company such as Taco Bell resigning to be a regional sales manager for a pot shop.
Secondly, Mike Pompeo is way too fat to be thinking about the White House. Running for office is like getting a girlfriend: you can get fat once you seal the deal, but not before. Also having a dog helps for both. This is no doubt part of the reason why Gov. Chris Christie got a tummy tuck in 2013. There simply are not enough fork lifts in Iowa and New Hampshire to lift a guy this size on to the stage:
And this guy probably knows that too:
So the day that Mike Pompeo goes on a diet is the day that I will believe he is running for office again. BTW, Mike Pompeo was a dime in college:
He also graduated first in his class at West Point and made hella dough by starting an aerospace company. So yes very fat, but also objectively very smart too.
But he’s not running for senate anytime soon. And he’s definitely not quitting the Trump Administration before the election either. Bet accordingly:
We talk about this in greater detail on our podcast, which you can find here: