Your VP Bets Are Wrekt: Now What?
For my money (literally) there has been no better market on PredictIt in the last few months than the Democratic Vice Presidential nomination. It has everything: bad takes, wild swings, negative risk (if thatâ€™s your thing), and the highest concentration of highly qualified women this side of Mitt Romneyâ€™s binders. I hate to be a dick, but if youâ€™ve lost money in this market you probably made at least one of three mistakes:
- Bet NO on Kamala Harris
- Bet YES on a white woman
- Maxed NO on someone in the high 90â€™s just because youâ€™d never heard of them
You also didnâ€™t follow my #1 philosophy: All white ladies to zero
And not for nothing, if youâ€™re taking losses — so is the publisher of this site, who has been flagrantly disregarding my advice for months. Keendawg, you can thank me later for relieving you at VP QB.
Now let me un-cuck you and your readers with some iSavage knowledge.
Why You Got Cucked — and how to fix it.
In most cases, mistakes came as a result of traders relying too much on what they would do if they were picking a Vice President and not weighing the multitude of considerations Joe Biden and his team have to make based on the wiiiiiiiiide Democratic tent. If youâ€™re picking a Republican Vice President, pluck any rando with a sharp haircut who sounds like a mix between a Sunday school teacher and Milton Friedman and youâ€™re gold. Democrats in 2020 have to somehow appeal to Bernie Bros, Never Trumpers, older African-Americans, â€œkids these daysâ€ and people who have wanted Hillary to be President since 1992. You also have to reflect on what went wrong in 2016 and recognize that one of those things was â€œTim Kaine.”
Honestly, Tim Kaine appealed to literally none of the groups I just listed.
Now that we are probably less than two months out from a pick, hereâ€™s how to play some of the major candidates still in contention:
Sen. Kamala Harris: If you made Mistake #1, sell your NO’s and try to get some YES while sheâ€™s still under 40c. Sheâ€™s probably going to get it unless she botches the vetting. Experience, name recognition and married to a white guy named Doug. As a white guy named Doug, this speaks to me. Sheâ€™s on top for a reason.
Rep. Val Demings: If you made Mistake #3 and are holding 98c NOs, I feel for you. Demings has upped her profile with tons of media exposure and insider praise. Her price is a little too spicy at 18-20c, but I wouldnâ€™t want NO at 80 either. This is one to dip in and out of while you keep up with her media appearances and whatever reliable gossip you can gather.
Sidebar: People might say this isnâ€™t a good time for someone with a law enforcement background to be on the ticket, but Biden will need some shelter from the â€œDemocrats are weak on crime and want your daughter to marry Antifaâ€ attacks, so Demings and Harris both provide an effective balance.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren: Even though Iâ€™m of the strong belief Biden will pick a Black woman, this one is still a short term hold if you have YES at 11c. I think sheâ€™ll stay in contention through the end as there may be some lingering conversation about appealing to liberals who didnâ€™t vote for Hillary. Iâ€™d sell if she hits between 18-20. Only white lady with half a chance.
Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms: You made Mistake #3 again? Believe the hype, Atlanta Mayor Bottoms is a top contender after her viral post-protest speech that was universally well received by not only human beings, but also Anne Coulter. She has parlayed this into an insane number of media appearances and VP chatter. I think she would be the top fall back if Harris falters, buy some YES under 10c
Sen. Amy Klobuchar: Tsk, tsk, you made mistake #2 and now you have a stack of 25c YES that has collapsed in value. Iâ€™d say sell now, but you might get a higher priced out if the campaign throws her a â€œKlobuchar is still in contentionâ€ pity statement. I donâ€™t think Amy ever had a chance, but having a negative connection to a nationwide protest movement is…not good. Amy, bye.
Stacey Abrams: Tough one, but I donâ€™t think sheâ€™s really a contender. I like her a lot, but I think the lack of experience argument has merit. Play the swings, but donâ€™t get caught bag holding. Most interesting thing in this market is that it seems the typical PredictIt trader thinks she is unelectable based on her looks. I hope they are all maxing No on McConnell in Kentucky right now based on that logic.
Sen. Tammy Duckworth: Her time to shine has not come yet, so it still makes sense to buy some Yes, but why do you need me to tell you that a witty, smart, experienced, double amputee, war veteran who knows how to needle Trump was a good buy when she was at 3c? Maybe not the eventual pick but Iâ€™m lining up now for her Yes shares as VA Secretary.
Susan Rice: I donâ€™t think thereâ€™s enough room for her among the top contenders unless someone really falters. Still not worth the nickel to buy No at 95c just in case Joe feels nostalgic. (unless youâ€™re just adding to negative risk). Between never having campaigned for office before, Benghazi and a weirdo pro-Trump son, Iâ€™m just not feeling it.
Whitmer, Hassan, Lujan-Grisham, Baldwin, Napolitano: Keendawg always edits my shit for length, so I just have to say No and keep it moving.
I think its been obvious that Biden would benefit most from an African-American running mate even before the coronavirus disproportionately impacted those communities and another round of police brutality caught on video increased the call for more Black leadership. He would be tossing those calls aside at the worst possible moment if he didnâ€™t go this route. Bidenâ€™s age and low voter enthusiasm necessitates a different and more calculated approach to picking a running mate than nominees past where a â€œpersonality match and do no harmâ€ philosophy worked just fine.
So if you were trading like normal times and somehow made all three mistakes listed above, youâ€™re possibly maxed out No on Kamala at 80c, filled up on Klob Yes at a quarter, have no shares on Demings and are straight staring at red arrows across the board. You might even be a contributor to this site (burn!). So if youâ€™re a stubborn glutton for punishment and insist on holding, at least trade here as hedge, where you can buy Demings, Bottoms, Whitmer, Sewell and Abrams for 31c. Youâ€™re welcome.
Stay safe and always sell at 90.
PS – I didnâ€™t write about her, but I just want to say that Terry Sewellâ€™s Wikipedia page is a work of art. Donâ€™t touch No, somebody on her team is working hard.