Guest Post: Charles Booker Will Smoke Amy McGrath by Obamoracle
The following is a guest post by PredictIt trader Obamoracle. It is in response to my recent post– KY Dem Dogfight: Amy McGrath vs. Charles Booker.
Close your eyes. Think back to the Democratic primary post South Carolina/pre Super Tuesday. What was just over three months feels like eon ago. However, it is important to remember the lessons that many cucks learned during this time. The going price for Bernie in Minnesota, Maine, and Massachusetts (3 states he lost) were north of 80 cents the day of Super Tuesday. You see, these people were chasing the fools gold of the early vote and donations. Many were saying it was impossible for Biden to win Texas because of the extensive early vote there. Well, he ended up winning by nearly 5 percent. Additionally, leading up to Super Tuesday, Joe Biden was 6th in money spent and still swept the competition. In reality, what really matters in this day and age is momentum. No amount of money can jump start it, and no amount of early voting can stop it. This mystical momentum is what I believe will decide the Kentucky Senate primary next Tuesday. And it currently belongs solely to Charles Booker. Most people had written this primary off, instead focusing on a McConnell/McGrath matchup that might not now even happen. A combination of impressive leadership from Booker and many poor decisions by McGrath has turned this primary from a snoozer to a barn burner. It is clear to see Booker is surging by looking at polls, endorsements, and reading the room.
Before you call me crazy, I will start with polls to show that this is more than possible. According to Booker’s internal polling he was down 51 points in April, down 49 points in May, and down 7 points last week. You may go yelping about internal poll biases, and I’ll respond with another data point. Per Matt Jones, an internal GOP poll taken the week before Booker’s had him down 10-15 points. If Booker has gained 42 points in a month, is it really crazy to think he could close the rest of the gap in two weeks? Sure, he has to make up for the early vote discrepancy, but he only has to get to about +5% on election day for that to happen.
Next, we’ll get into the endorsements. Prepare for a very sad scene
:
0 state officials back Amy McGrath. Only actors and establishment Democrats have backed her. On the other hand, Charles Booker has garnered all the local support:
In addition to a bevy of state representatives, he has earned the endorsement of the two biggest newspapers in the state and popular Kentucky radio personality, Matt Jones. Many of these key endorsements, specifically important moderates (such as the last McConnell challenger Alison Grimes) have come after Booker polled down 7.
Finally, it is time to read the room. McGrath may have 40 million in the bank, but over 96% of that comes from out of state donors. This is not surprising when looking at where her endorsements come from. Kentuckians, like most, do not appreciate being rich-splained by snobs in Hollywood and New York. They are starting to wonder if she will fight for them, or if she is simply a glorified Mitch McConnell. Don’t just take it from me, look at the empirical evidence:
Look at that difference in engagement, Amy BTFO like a rabid, two-legged dog. After this tweet, Booker started getting about as much in donations per day as he used to get per month. Plus I guarantee at least half of McGrath’s RTs came from bots in California. To show the detrimental effects of this nasty tweet and to measure momentum, I tracked some social media statistics.
The tweet took place on 6/12, and you can see an instant net LOSS of nearly 1,000 followers for McGrath. Of course twitter does not come close to representing the whole demographic of Kentucky voters, but one would be ignorant to think this means nothing. McGrath is still net down followers while Booker has gained over 20,000. It is important to remember this all happened after Booker polled down 7. Another way we can read the room is evaluating why Amy McGrath is spending over 3 million on ads in the final week leading up to the election, and upping it every day. Does that scream someone who has everything under control? No, because although she is spending 4x more than Booker in advertising, she is still down in google searches. 
The last thing to analyze is the high expected voter turnout. According to the Lexington Herald Leader, 27% of voters have requested an absentee ballot with Louisville and Lexington leading the charge. This figure doesn’t even include those who will vote in person, and is above the last two primary turnouts of 21% and 14%. Are these people ecstatic to vote for Sleepy McGrath? It doesn’t appear so since the high turnout is led by the two city centers, Booker’s strongest voting blocks.
Booker has gained all the momentum in this race, and it is easy to see why. In the wake of this invigorated Black Lives Matters movement, McGrath has been absent and at a lack of sympathy while Booker has been an impressive leader. Most people think Kentucky hates progressives, which is not totally correct (Bernie only lost this state by .5% in 2016) because they actually like progressive economic policies but are more moderate on social issues. There is a good chance that Booker is a progressive they can handle over an establishment funded moderate. Will it have been too little too late for Booker, or will he prevail? It is hard to know, but I have a position of McGrath no/Booker yes at an average of 23 cents in what seems like a coin flip to me. I will keep this as long as the momentum stays in Booker’s court based on the metrics I have mentioned above.
It’s Obamoracle, cuh
#BringBackTwets
