POD&VLOG: When You Bet, Don’t Do This [VP Funeral]
Animals,
A few weeks ago I was writing a post about how awesome it feels to be the genius owner of this blog who basically turns every headline in the Fake News Media (FNM) into money-winning insights. The problem with this was that one of Albert Einstein’s rules of science is that the second you get cocky, you get your face ripped off by a major celestial body. In this case, that celestial body was the George Floyd murder, protests, and riots, which absolutely gutted some of my bets worse than Red Lobster got gutted by Chipotle and various other fast casual brands.
On this episode, Zoltar, Pratik, and I preside over a funeral for our losing political gambling predictions. We break down our mistakes so that you will not repeat them. Be smart. Don’t lose money.
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KEENDAWG
Sup
I just found you guys and I like your commentary.
Picked a bad week to listen to the Zoltar though.
I bought like 20 shares of Mazars no so it’s not like I’m gonna jump off a building over it lol.
I don’t know if it was that podcast or a different recent one but you mentioned UT for Dem was looking interesting in the 15 cent neighborhood.
I didn’t buy that, but I did look at all the red states in that price range.
MT looked to me a better bet for 15 cents….especially considering what the Governor and Senate races are doing there.
MT is up to near 20 cents now…would you trim, sell, or let it ride?
What are you holding in MT? If you just gained 5 cents on a 15 cent buy, I’d probably sell and wait for it to fall back down again. There should be a lot of price movement between now and the election.
Dems win MT for President.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6606/Which-party-will-win-Montana-in-the-2020-presidential-election.
Also you guys said you’re bored with the markets with nothing compelling to trade.
I just got in on NO for Dems pick up 7+ in the Senate for 86 cents.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6670/What-will-be-the-net-change-in-Senate-seats,-by-party
A kind of related trade I took is NO for Dems to win by 280+ EVs for 88c.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6653/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election
…and Dems win fewer than 209 House seats for 90c.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6669/How-many-House-seats-will-Democrats-win-in-the-2020-election
NO for Trump to win any state he lost in 2016 for 68c
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6724/Will-Donald-Trump-win-any-state-he-lost-in-2016
I like playing the Dem clean sweep for 54c rather than trying to pick an exact number of Senate pickups.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6770/Will-Democrats-win-the-White-House,-Senate-and-House-in-2020
Do you have a spam folder? I just made a post with a bunch of PredictIt links and it didn’t post.
I think NO on Susan Rice VP is a lock.
…Reminiscent of the Gore/Lieberman ticket…It would be a suicide move for Biden.
A huge disappointment for base…particularly the Bernie crowd, and unlikely to move many always Trumpers.