At This Point, Betting the Veepstakes is a Lunatic Move

One of the things that I would like to make absolutely clear is that I have no clue who Joe Biden is going to pick for Vice President. As I have said over-and-over again, I think the chief criteria for his pick are:

• Ready to take over the country on day one;
• Ready to be as active and powerful a VP as he was;
• Someone he likes personally.

Knowing this, if I were Joe Biden, I would expect Joe Biden’s list of dream running mates to be:

• Susan Rice
• Sen. Amy Klobuchar
• Sen. Cory Booker
• Gov. Gina Raimondo
• Gov. Gavin Newsom
• Michelle Obama
• Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto

But Biden’s promise to pick a woman narrowed this A-list down to:

• Susan Rice
• Amy Klobuchar
• Gina Raimondo
• Michelle Obama
• Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto

Sen. Cortez Masto removed herself from the list, which left us with:

• Susan Rice
• Amy Klobuchar
• Gina Raimondo
• Michelle Obama

And at this point we are all just assuming that the George Floyd murder has eliminated everyone who is white, so we are left with these VP candidates:

• Susan Rice
• Michelle Obama

Now, I do not know a lot about what Barack and Michelle are up to, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that Ms. Obama is probably not ready to go back to the White House and is very happy making stacks of cash through her Netflix deal. So that gets the VP list to:

• Susan Rice

But there are also the names that Biden just has to consider, but who I don’t think he is actually going to pick. Everyone knows these two, but it has always been my opinion that they are giant lightening rods who have a dubious personal relationship with Biden, and are therefore, not going to get the job:

• Sen. Kamala Harris
• Sen. Elizabeth Warren

Then, then there are the people who Biden probably had no interest in picking at the outset of his campaign, but who he’s gotten to know through the vetting process and would be open to sharing the White House with:

• Sen. Tammy Duckworth
• Rep. Val Demmings

And lastly, there are the people that PredictIt traders have been pumping on-and-off for a few months because they are female minorities, and people are 100 percent willing to overpay for any candidate who meets those standards:

• Rep Karen Bass
• Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms
• Gov. Michelle Lujan-Girsham

I’m sure that both of these politicans are skilled and smart, but I have never felt like there was any real chance that Joe Biden would pick a VP who hasn’t fulfilled all the requirements I listed above. IMO, having never held statewide office or served inside the White House; or never having run for president in a serious way are deal breakers.

By that definition, I have no choice but to eliminate one more:

• Rep. Val Demmings.

That leaves me with this list of serious conenders:

• Sen. Tammy Duckworth
• Susan Rice

One pol that was on his original list, and one pol who he has learned to like.

Now, real talk: I have no idea what the selection criteria are for Joe Biden, because I think this whole process has gone totally bonkers. As I said last week, I think the Karen Bass rumors are proof that Biden isn’t really happy with his options. I am getting a chuckle out of this because there just seems to be a current in the Democratic Party that expects him to find an absolutely perfect candidate who will please every single demographic in America, be an electrifying genius speaker, and also have the skin color and gender. As far as I know, the only time that has happened in recent history was President Barack Obama, and you really can’t expect that type of politician to just appear every four years.

And a secondary point to that, I think if you had told Biden that there would be a pandemic in the middle of this campaign as well as a fractious moment in race relations, he wouldn’t have eliminated half of the U.S. population by committing to a female.

All of this is the long way of saying that IMO, this whole VP thing has turned into a runaway train, and I am not that interested in betting on its final outcome.

I own 1000 shares of Duckworth at 3 cents. That’s it. I’m hoping to sell those for 10X value on the right pump. But right now, I have no feel for what his selection criteria will be. So I am not trying to take on any other risk — and as I have said from the outset — my goal was to be holding 0 shares when the actual announcement came.

So good luck out there, animals.

KEENDAWG.

UPDATE: I checked pricing and — at 8 cents, I couldn’t help myself. I bought some Val Demmings for the first time ever and am hoping to dump it at around 10 cents when the right rumors leak.

Keendawg

Founder. Surfer. Gambler.

Follow him on Twitter at: http://www.twitter.com/keendawg

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