It is officially August aka the Dog Days of Summer, and the hottest questions in America are:
- When will the coronavirus end?
- Is Microsoft’s plan to buy TikTok only happening because Bill Gates has given up on tracking Americans through vaccine injections?
- Who will be Joe Biden’s VP?
I personally have very little insight into questions 1 and 2, so I will be focusing this blog on some new betting strategies for Joe Biden’s VP selection. In fact, I am going to introduce a new way to think about this whole process. It’s called:
Would you rather have THIS PERSON or ANYONE ELSE?
Because when we are talking about selecting the VICE PRESIDENT, we are talking about making a selection that could be literally anyone in American politics. It’s like picking the captain of the All-Star team. No salary cap, no position restrictions — this role can go to anyone. So, therefore, every candidate is competing against every other candidate.
Let’s get started.
Kamala Harris (50 CENTS)
PRO: Would you rather have a diverse, vocal Senator from the nation’s biggest state, who can turn her fundraising list into an absolute money machine… who once raised $400,000 in a single day… or would you rather bet on anyone else?
CON: Would you rather bet on a political brutalist who has called Joe Biden a racist on live TV — and has shown “no remorse” for it — according to Biden vetting team leader Chris Dodd; who uses surrogates to attack her intra-party rivals; who did worse in the Democratic Primary than Andrew Yang; and who risks triggering moderate white people in the suburbs more than Colin Kaepernick… or anyone else?
KEENDAWG SAYS: At 50 cents per share, this one is easy. I’ll take everyone else.
SUSAN RICE (20 CENTS)
PRO: Would you rather bet on someone who Biden vibes with on a personal level, who is well-connected in Washington, D.C., and has serious experience at the highest level of government (Obama’s National Security Advisor)… or would you rather bet on anyone else?
CON: Would you rather bet on someone who is drenched in conspiracy theories about Benghazi that were credible enough for Michael Bay, John Krasinksi, and Paramount Pictures to spend $50 million making a movie about them… or would you rather bet on anyone else?
Would you rather have someone who has actually run for elected office and won before… or would you rather have anyone else?
KEENDAWG SAYS: I have always taken the approach of “playing the man” instead of “playing the numbers.” And to me, that means Joe Biden will make decisions that are based on emotion first than a campaign logic second.
To that end, I would not be surprised in the least if Biden picked an old friend like Rice who just so happened to match the Democratic base’s demand for someone who is female and not white. I tried to get on Susan Rice while she was under 10 but failed. Her price at 20 cents feels about right to me, but this late in the game, I don’t want to buy anything unless it’s noticeably undervalued. So I’m on the sideline here.
TAMMY DUCKWORTH (13 CENTS)
PRO: Would you rather bet on a respected senator who fulfills the Democratic base’s requirements for gender and diversity, or would you rather bet on anyone else?
Would you rather bet on someone who Biden clearly likes personally, or anyone else?
Would you rather bet on someone with military service and a Purple Heart, or anyone else?
Would you rather bet on someone who has won statewide in a massive Midwestern state (Illinois) or anyone else?
CON: Would you rather bet on a senator who is basically unknown to most of the country, did not go through the gruesome vetting process of the 2020 primary, and has no real constituency to bring to the race… or anyone else?
Would you rather bet on someone with a grave physical disability, albeit from wounds in combat, or anyone else? Knowing this, would you rather bet on a disabled candidate, who will stand next to an old man being who is taking gut punches for having “dementia,” or anyone else?
KEENDAWG SAYS: I’ve been holding shares of Duckworth at 3 cents and selling every time they pop up to around 15. I think that Duckworth’s strengths and weaknesses all work together. She doesn’t have much of a following because she isn’t a lightning rod or ego freak, like most polls with national ambition. So she has comparatively less baggage, but a much lower profile. I generally view her as a great pick for a Biden campaign that just wants to avoid triggering white people who are tired of PC wars and riots. If you believe that Joe Biden is going to crush Trump in the election (I do), then someone likable and non-controversial like Duckworth is a great way to just cruise into the White House.
KAREN BASS (10 CENTS)
PRO: Would you rather put your money on someone who is black, female, and liked by Joe Biden, or would you rather bet on anyone else?
CON: Would you rather bet on someone who is completely unknown to the American public, except for a comically hilarious speech to some Scientologists, or would you rather bet on everyone else?
Would you rather bet on someone who joined a revolutionary group and actually went to Cuba to be “educated” by them… or would you rather bet on everyone else?
KEENDAWG SAYS: To Susan Rice’s credit, even though she takes a lot of heat for letting anti-American revolutionaries kill senior government officials at Benghazi under her watch… at least she’s never traveled to a foreign country to train with said anti-American revolutionaries. I’ve written extensively about this and think that Karen Bass’s chances of being VP are pretty much zero. I’m short at 83 cents.
REP. VAL DEMMINGS (7 CENTS)
PRO: Would you rather bet on a hitherto unknown Congresswoman from Florida who Biden has clearly gotten to know and like through the vetting process, or anyone else?
Ergo, would you rather bet on someone who has personally won Biden’s respect (and doesn’t merely hold an office that commands it) — or someone else?
Would you rather bet on someone with a strong law enforcement background at a moment where that is a fractious question… or someone else?
Would you rather bet on someone whose career and experience is pretty low-level compared to the field, or someone else?
KEENDAWG SAYS: As I’ve said before, I think Biden’s decision-making process is more emotional than rational. The fact that Val Demings, who has no bigtime political accomplishments on paper, is still in contention for the job shows that she has won Joe Biden’s respect in an enduring way. Her stock at 7 cents a share is a steal. I’m buying.
ELIZABETH WARREN (6 CENTS)
PRO: Would you rather bet on a candidate who has a massive network and brand among Progressives, or anyone else?
Would you rather bet on someone who can shore-up your Left flank, or anyone else?
CON: Would you rather bet on someone who is almost as old as Joe Biden, or anyone else?
Would you rather bet on someone who is extremely divisive within the Democratic donor class – high wage people on Wall Street, in fancy law firms, and in tech — who don’t want to pay 60 percent of their wages in taxes… or anyone else?
Would you rather bet on someone who alienates almost as many people as she inspires, thanks to her extremely ideological and preachy style… or anyone else?
KEENDAWG SAYS: I think her age, race, and style disqualify her. I’m not playing.
WILDCARDS: GRETCHEN WHITMER AND GINA RAIMONDO
PRO: Would you rather bet on competent and photogenic governors who Joe Biden probably likes on a personal level, or anyone else?
CON: Would you rather bet on some white women who would clearly disappoint a Democratic Party that has spent the last 2 months protesting and rioting for racial justice… or anyone else?
KEENDAWG SAYS: I own some 1 cent shares of Gina Raimondo. Don’t make fun of me. I’m just a fan.
What would you rather do?