As the Communications Director for the American Fighter Pilot Party, I am providing a critical update on the Republican Primary in KS-01. Here in this district, Fighter Pilot Party member Bill Clifford is running against former Lieutenant Governor Tracey Mann (who is, incidentally, a man). Right now the odds on PredictIt are heavily in Mann’s favor (80/20).
But if there is one thing we know from 2020, it is to never count the Fighter Pilot Party out of a race.
As those of you who read this blog already know, the Fighter Pilot Party is running undefeated in 2020, after picking up a huge upset in California under Mike Garcia (F-18):
And a respectable hold in Kentucky with Amy McGrath.
So this is just a massive chance to establish the complete and total dominance of the Fighter Pilot Party. Because of that, I had my Fighter Pilot Party intern, Tuck Leg, do a breakdown of the race for you. Here’s what he came up up with.
The Fighter Pilot Party is back? Apparently it is, with Bill Clifford, former flyer of an F-15, and candidate in the KS-01 Republican primary, running against Tracey Mann, former Lieutenant Governor for a year (2018-2019). On PredictIt, this is a 80-20(ish) split in favor of Mann. The reasons for this are unknown, but may have to do with the lack of a picture of Clifford in the market. Come on PI, we want to see Bill’s beautiful mustache!
Anyways, what is the actual statistical and logical basis for Mann’s high price? The last poll of this area was back before the 2018 midterms, so no help there. What data do we have, and what can we find from it? We have campaign finance, for one. Clifford has raised just under $200,000 more than Mann, and spent a little more than $200,000 as well. That’s definitely good for Clifford. What else do we have? Nothing? Really? Well, we have satellite spending, if that counts. About $500,000 was spent on Clifford by outside sources, mostly from the With Honor Fund, and around $400,000 was spent on Mann, mostly from American Values First. Another point for Clifford. Other than that, there’s not a lot to be found on this race. It’s very obscure, and unnoticed by most PI players (only 5,000 shares traded). I think this is certainly a competitive race, and a rather nice buy on PI. Now is it a guarantee? No. There are too many unknown variables. But is it a deal? Absolutely.
P.S. Always check the No side of the opposite trade. A lot of the time you’ll get a better deal.
Mann’s position is an 80/20 favorite is for a few reasons:
- He is the former Lt. Governor so I am sure he has the whole party infrastructure behind him;
- Even though he has less money, he’s got many more donors. Clifford has funded ~$600k of his campaign’s $900k himself. That’s helpful but not a great sign;
- Clifford is not running as a Fighter Pilot Party member. He’s actually running as a doctor.
Game. Set. Match. This campaign isn’t getting airborne if Dr. Clifford doesn’t want to fly.
I’m not going to bet this race. However…
Mann wins. But the Fight Pilot Party remains undefeated.