One of the #1 mistakes that rookie traders make while betting on politics is that they do not take the free money from betting on total layups. Generally speaking, this is because of their high price (85c+) and time to maturation (anywhere from days to months). They just don’t want $500 sitting around for a month or two until it becomes $550.
So, instead of just planting a money tree in their backyard and harvesting a thousand nickels from it every week, they dig a cash pit instead. And into that cash pit they throw lots of “cheap” long-odds bets that almost never make any money.
There are lots of geniuses who have written about portfolio theory but tbh, that is very boring stuff. The important thing to remember is that in political gambling, your first priority should be to avoid taking FULL losses. Because every share of a 30c longshot that goes to 0 takes 3 shares of that 90 cent gimme to offset. So if you are a bonehead, you can get behind very fast. But if you are interested in getting rich slowly, you can let a few hundred bucks ride and count the free money that just falls from the sky.
Anyway, this is an important lesson because there is a massive presidential election coming up and the odds surrounding it are insane. Honestly, when I look at PredctIt’s map of odds for each state, I see at least a dozen money trees ready to be be plucked. This blog post is a basic instruction on how to do that.
See, 99 percent of traders look as this map and immediately want to be total badasses and nail who is going to win the swing states like North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
But when I look at it, I am doing the opposite: I am looking for savagely underpriced bets that are guaranteed to win. Once I identify those, I am going to immediately head to a pawn shop and sell my TV, car, and pets to get as much cash as possible to invest in them.
Today, I am going to focus on Nevada, Virginia, New York, and Oregon. And as we get into this, all you need to do is ask one question: what is the situation where Donald Trump could win one of these states? Well, to prove how easy this bets are to win, I will now attempt to answer those questions.
CAN TRUMP WIN ANY OF THESE STATES?
Nevada at 82c — Since 2016, Republicans have lost two Senate races here, including incumbent Dean Heller’s in 2018. They’ve also lost the governship and in 2016, Hillary won the Silver State’s 6 Electoral College voters. Talk about a brutal losing streak. The GOP has basically been getting smelted by the Dems here for the entire Trump era and there is no reason to think that trend won’t continue in November. Seriously, if you want to bet on Red in Nevada, do it at the Bellagio, not on PredictIt.
Oregon at 91c — WTF? Are you serious? Republicans haven’t won in Oregon since 1984. One thing that I absolutely love about all these loser Antifa people looting and rioting all over Portland is that it is making retards think that Trump has more than a 0.1% chance of winning there. This is a deal of a lifetime. Real odds should be 99/1. #LFG.
New York at 94c — again, please describe to me how Trump would possibly win here? Even George Bush post-9/11, hosting the RNC in New York City, got blown-out by 18 points.
Bet on Uncle Joe in New York?
Virginia at 89c — Okay, this is probably a fair price to pay. But from 2008-2020, Republicans redcoats have gotten chased out of Virginia by the Democratic colonists worse than the British did from 1776-1781. Republicans have held the Governor’s mansion for 4 of the last 18 years, have lost two senate seats, both houses of the state legislature, and haven’t won a presidential election here since 2004.
With Trump badly underwater in national polls, you can safely bet that that trend will not continue on in 2020. Current polls: Biden +11
These are pricey bets, but they roll over in less than two months. So that’s a 60% return on your money on an annualized basis. If you made that return on Wall Street people would call you a genius and name their sports teams after you.
So there you have it. Make money now.