The Times-Siena Polls Are Trash

One of my least favorite jobs as editor of this blog is reading polls. Generally speaking, polls are very boring and full of bogus information. For example, earlier this year when the riots broke out in America, the polls showed some very confusing things like:

  • 57 percent of Americans thought that race relations in the country were generally bad, but 56 percent of them also thoughts that race relations in their own community are generally good.
  • 67 percent of respondents thought that “police treat blacks worse than whites;” but 65 percent thought that in their own communities, only a few (28%), almost none (20%), and none (17%) of their police were prejudiced against African Americans.

This is pretty much consistent with another bogus polling story that comes out every year, which is that most Americans think that Congress stinks, but they think their Congressman is a stand-up guy. Ummm. Okay.

Anyway, as many of you are aware, The New York Times recently published a new set of polls about the presidential election in Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. These were some of the closest states in the 2016 Trump-Hillary contest, so gamblers have had a massive chubby breaking down the data inside of them this past weekend. I personally do not understand why though, because they pretty much just confirmed what all the other polls have been saying: that the Trump campaign is a baby seal sliding around on a rapidly melting glacier, and Joe Biden is a very large man with a club.

Aside from that, the only interesting facts were these:

Additionally, I would note that:

  • GOP Senate candidate Jason Lewis is doing better with suburban voters in MN than Trump, which might be one ray of sunshine for at-risk Republican Senators like Martha McSally, Cory Gardner, and Thom Tillis;
  • Trump is competitive with Biden in the suburbs of Minneapolis and Milwaukee; but,
  • Trump is still on pace to get absolutely nuked in all of these states on election day. That’s because…
  • A Republican Party that can’t run-up the score in the suburbs and with college-educated whites is basically a Republican Party suffering from electoral meth-mouth. In other words, Republicans are experiencing a fast and predictable decay after a multi-year long addiction to a cheap stimulant called Trump.

We’ll soon know if the high was worth the fall.


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