Tonight is the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and those of you who have been with us for a while know that I have been heavily medicated on antidepressants for months in the lead-up to this event. This is due to the fact that PredictIt has eliminated the “mention markets” that used to make debates so much fun to watch, and which also paid for the generous contributions I have been making in Pratik’s name to the Church of Scientology just to f*ck with him.
For those of who are rookies, a “mention market” is a betting opportunity where you get to wager on what politicians will say at a public event. I personally love these markets because I am the world’s #1 genius at predicting them; and because they are a great opportunity to win back all the money I lose betting on more quantitative markets that all the soy boy math freaks in their moms’ basements absolutely cream me in.
Fortunately for me, even though PredictIt has killed mention markets to comply with the CFTC’s [alleged] crackdown on their platform, the Boys have been scouring the earth for opportunities to bet on this debate somewhere else. And that place is… MYBOOKIE.AG.
Now, WARNING: Technically, this exchange is illegal for U.S. residents to bet on. But if your risk profile includes a possible IRS inquiry, then you will find excellent rewards here. This is due to the fact that their bookmakers on the political side are only slightly more sophisticated than a bunch of orangoutangs tossing an iPad around and attempting to discover iron/ore. I mean, a few weeks ago you could get +220 (31c in PredictIt odds) that Joe Biden even would attend all three debates. Are you kidding!!??
So with that in mind, here is your Mention Market breakdown for MyBookie.
And at the VERY END you’ll see.. THE BEST BET ON THE BOARD.
But first… ARE YOU READY?
WILL TRUMP SAY “QANON?”
YES +300, NO -500
What a boner bet. There is a 0 percent chance that Joe Biden or the debate moderators will bring up QAnon on their own, due to the fact that this conspiracy theorist cult is now viewed on the same level as Jonesville or the Michigan Militria. Honestly, you would have an easier time making friends at a Planned Parenthood fundraiser while wearing a “Mike Pence is my Homeboy” t-shirt than a hat with the letter “Q” on it. So zero percent chance Biden brings it up.
And even though Donald Trump is approximately as disciplined of a speaker as a 4th grader after 7 Mountain Dews, I still can’t see a situation where he brings this up. There are way too many real conspiracy theories in politics for Trump to waste his time on this one that is clearly false. This market is an easy NO.
WILL TRUMP SAY “SLEEPY JOE?”
YES: +100, NO: -150
Trump is always happy to give one of his colleagues a demeaning nickname like “Little Marco,” “Low-Energy Jeb,” or “Crooked Hillary” and call them that to their face. But “Sleepy Joe” is not as easy of a taunt as some of the other ones. Think about it.
Under what circumstances would the words, “Sleepy Joe” come out of Trump’s mouth — and in that order? The others were easy:
“There she goes again, Crooked Hillary.”
But even the famous put-down “low-energy Jeb” was never actually uttered by Trump, because it makes no sense to say those words in a rapid-fire format. In the debates, Trump referred to Jeb as: “a very low-energy kind of guy,” and a “low-energy person.” But not “low-energy Jeb.” This is key!!
So what is Trump going to say about Joe Biden?
“There he goes again, Sleepy Joe?” That makes no sense.
“Are you feeling sleepy, Joe?” Also makes no sense.
It’s too hard to come up with good combos here. I’m taking NO on this bet.
WILL TRUMP MENTION BIDEN’S BASEMENT?
YES -160, NO +120
While I think that “Sleepy Joe” is a term reserved for Trump’s rallies, I think that the President clowning on Biden for his awkward basement videos is a given. Again, I ask myself, how would Trump use this in a sentence?
“Joe, you want to run the country? How are you going to do that from your basement.”
“He wants to run for president? Someone tell him he’s got to get out of his basement first.”
“While you’ve been hiding in your basement, I’ve been creating the greatest economy in history.”
There are too many combinations. I think this one happens. YES.
HOW MANY TIMES WILL TRUMP SAY “CHINA?”
The line here is 6.5. That feels like a lot, but I have no way of knowing this early on in the campaign. Let’s see how many mentions Emperor Xi’s regime gets in this debate and then prepare for the second.
WILL TRUMP SAY “ANARCHISTS?”
This feels like a slam dunk since “anarchists” is now a more popular word in Trumpland than “fake news media,” and that is saying a lot. It is obviously part of Trump’s campaign strategy to tie “anarchist” rioters in places like Portland to Joe Biden’s platform.
The YES side of this bet is at -700, which means we’re talking about implied odds of 87 percent. I personally don’t like to bet on mention markets at prices that high unless I have a month’s worth of Adderall jammed up my nose, but that price is probably right on the money. YES.
HOW MANY TIMES WILL TRUMP SAY “PORTLAND?”
This is one of the hardest bets on the board. The line is set at 2.5. The way that this breaks for the over is if Biden takes Trump to task for having unidentified federal agents policing “Portland.” But I doubt Joe Biden wants to talk too much about these rioters since 99 percent of them have parents who are hosting fundraisers for Biden in their suburban homes.
I’m not touching this one.
FINALLY… THE BEST BET ON THE BOARD:
Who will Fox News say won the debate?
One of the iron laws of politics is that in a re-election campaign, the sitting president usually gets a major wedgie from his challenger in the first debate. For example, Obama, W, and Reagan both got absolutely rocked in their first debates and looked complete Sallies on live TV.
This iron law of politics is mostly due to the fact that being the President is an immensely distracting job and fraught with daily responsibilities other than campaign prp. So while Joe Biden’s daily responsibilities include remembering to take all of his pills — even the yellow one — raising money, and prepping for the debate, Trump’s calendar is loaded with his obligations to run the Free World and tweet about fake news.
Long story short, regardless of the news media’s partisan slant, it’s always a safe bet that the sitting president will look like a bonehead at the first debate.
Joe Biden at +350 implies 22.5% odds that Biden wins. The real probability should be closer to 70 percent. This an ATM.
BIDEN all the way here.
BOOM. There you go.