All hell is breaking loose in the betting market for who will be the next U.S. President. Biden has been moving up steadily for some months in the betting market but has now suddenly spiked to reached all-time highs. Of course, he has the president to thank for all this. After months of playing down the risks of COVID-19, Trump gets the virus himself and proceeds to take steroids and other experimental drugs. Pair that with a weak debate performance and we can see why his re-election campaign is in peril.
So what’s the betting play here? Well, that depends on what the MAGA money will do. MAGA money seems to come in waves and blindly line up behind Donald Trump, thereby pushing Joe Biden’s share price down.
Immediately after Trump’s debate, I predicted that MAGA money would show up again. And it did, this past weekend. So why not again?
Personally, looking at the polling right now, I wouldn’t risk putting a dime on trump.
But I still expect a small Trump bump, which I will personally use that opportunity to buy Biden shares (as he prices go down to match Trump’s rise) in states that are more stretch goals for Biden: Texas, Ohio and Georgia in particular. Georgia especially has some has some solid polling for Biden and it doesn’t look like he has even maxed out his vote share there yet.
This race is over, The only question left is how badly will Trump lose?
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I assume that the election will be like the Super Bowl, and by that I mean, that a lot of small-time, retail bettors will come in at the last second to make some wagers just to goose their excitement while watching the event. That crowd has favored Trump over-and-over again these past four years.
So I expect there will be a last second movement in Trump’s favor near election day, as Rahul has predicted. The only question to me is how much farther the odds stretch in Biden’s favor between now and then. If they creep up more than a few more cents, I’m not sure how much this last-second price movement will matter. It may just reduce Biden’s odds back to where they are today — or possibly even higher.
What do you think?