Back in September, Keendawg argued that the Republican Party had transformed from the â€œparty of winnersâ€ in the Reagan-era to a â€œparty of losersâ€ today. Whereas the GOP drew entrepreneurs and other succeeding in the economy back then, today it is a party that repels those who are â€œsmart and successfulâ€ while attracting â€œall the dumb people.â€
I think this insight is true when it comes to campaign talent.
Back in 2000 or 2004, a political gambler could reasonably bet on the assumption that the talent on the Bush, Gore, and Kerry campaigns were roughly comparable.
I donâ€™t think this assumption holds today for the simple reason that the most talented people in our society aren’t willing to stake their reputations on the party of Trump.
Generally, I tend to think that the quality of campaigns is overstated in the mediaâ€™s incessant horse-race stories.
In an election like this one, however, in which COVID and early voting introduces new complexities, the quality differential between the campaigns might matter at the margins in terms of their ability to get their voters out to the polls.
If Iâ€™m correct that traders are both overestimating the number of shy Trump voters and ignoring the implications of campaign skills gaps, market prices in close races and in margin markets may prove to be considerably off-based.
Iâ€™m willing to bet on the following longshots on the assumption that Democratsâ€™ superior campaigns will allow them to outperform expectations:
Arizona Presidential Margin: Dems by 5%+ at the market price
Electoral College Margin of Victory: Democrats to win by 280+ at 8c
Election Results Versus the Polls: Biden 1-3% at 9-10c
Florida Presidential: Biden long around 40%
Florida Presidential Margin: Dems by 3% or more at 7c or less
Georgia Presidential: Biden in low 40s
Georgia Presidential Margin: Dems by 4% or more at 7c or less
Iowa Presidential: Biden in mid-20s
Iowa Presidential Margin: GOP 5% to Dem 6% at 8c or less
Iowa Senate: Greenfield long in 30s
Iowa Senate Margin: Greenfield 2-5% at 6c or less
North Carolina Margin: Dems by 5-6% at 5c or less
Ohio Margin: GOP by 3% to Democrat by 3%, buy all brackets at 5c or less and flip
Ohio Presidential: Biden long around 30%
Pennsylvania Margin: Dems by 6-9% at 7c or less
Popular Vote Margin: Dems 9-10% at 15c
Senate Race with Smallest MOV: Alaska at 5c, Kansas 4c, Texas 3c (donâ€™t hold until end, sell on spike)
State Won by Smallest Margin in Presidential: Alaska at 3c, Missouri at 1c, South Carolina at 1c (donâ€™t hold until end, sell on spike)
Texas Presidential: Biden long in high 20s
Pratik Chougule is a contributor toÂ Star Spangled GamblersÂ and author of the bookÂ How to Make Money from Political Predictions: A Guide to Generating High, Steady Returns from PredictIt.