How Trump’s Concession Could Impact the 2024 Race
Trump will not be the president come Inauguration Day 2021.
What remains to be seen is how Trump concedes.
My guess is that when Trump acknowledges that he lost, he will drop hints that he will run again in 2024.
Whether or not he is serious about actually running, the possibility is enough to shake up the 2024 race for the Republican nomination.
The biggest impact will be on Republicans who aligned themselves closely to Trump. As long as Trump is keeping his options open, it will be difficult for them to lay the groundwork for their own campaigns, as would ordinarily be the case for a prospective presidential candidate.
Given how many promising would-be presidential candidates fall into this category, Trump is likely to create a window for a Republican who is not beholden to him to break out on the national stage.
Even if it is true that Trump retains a hold on a sizable chunk of the Republican base, establishment donors and the national media will provide a platform for a Republican who is willing either to denounce Trump in Khrushchev-Stalin terms, or even to offer a new path independent of Trumpism.
There are two ways to bet on this insight right now.
On PredictIt, buy No on Vice President Pence filing to run for president before the end of 2022.
If you can bet on Ladbrokes, look for cheap shares on Republicans with an independent base of support who kept their distance from Trump. Popular governors like Charlie Baker in Massachusetts and Larry Hogan in Maryland might fit the bill.
Pratik Chougule is a contributor to Star Spangled Gamblers and author of the book How to Make Money from Political Predictions: A Guide to Generating High, Steady Returns from PredictIt.
