One of my favorite activities in life is to see a massive trend coming, do my best to ignore it, and then profit bigly by betting against it.
For example, when Taylor Swift got involved in Tennessee politics to help Democrat Phil Bredesen win an open senate seat in 2018, lots of people jumped on the T-Swift bus and thought she would awaken Tennesseans to the fact that when they saw a blank space, they should write a Democrat’s name.
But I was Fearless and ignored this noise just like I have ignored T-Swift’s career since 1989, and profited handsomely by betting on Republican Marsha Blackburn to hold Bob Corker’s seat.
However, sometimes when I ignore a trend, I eventually realize I need to be the bigger man and accept my own personal need to change.
In this case, I am referring to these markets, which the Boys have been chirping me about non-stop for two weeks.
What Members of Congress Will Object to the Election?
These two bets will measure how much, if any, Congressional Republicans follow President Trump down conspiracy theory rabbit holes to try and undo the November election, which Joe Biden won convincingly.
And because these bets are complicated, juicy, and theoretically my speciality (legislative markets), I have been ignoring them entirely, knowing that the second I start to research how things will go down, my mental state will degenerate into a haze of Modelo fizz, Adderral dust, and sleepless nights until I am naked in the streets doing this…
As I ponder whether something that Ted Cruz said on his lame podcast means he is going to try and give Joe Biden the Rock Bottom on January 6.
Now, to be honest, covering the “election objections” subject is going to take more than one post. I expect at least three will be needed. So here’s what I’m going to cover in this initial post:
- What makes a “formal objection”
- Whether it’s best to bet in the House, the Senate, or both
- What type of situations will motivate a politician to make a “formal objection”
- What senators might file an objection (POWER RANKINGS!!!)
After this, I will move on to individual senators and how I’ll bet on them. So let’s go:
How do you object to an election?
A formal objection happens when both (1) Congressman and (1) Senator object to any state’s election results. There is something very important to take note of here…
An objections does NOT happen when a Member of Congress votes to overturn the election. It only happens when he/she sponsors a formal objection with a member of the opposite House of Congress. So uhhh… See something here???
Do you think these people betting on 25+ formal objections know that they are betting on who will submit an official protest?
Or do you think they are betting on how many Members will vote YES on a measure to overturn the election? The difference is critical, so be careful out there.
Which markets are you the most interested in?
Great question. Since there are 435 Members of Congress in the House and 100 in the Senate, I am generally not that interested in betting on what the Lower Chamber will do. Given the number of total weirdos in the House and the average level of professionalism they have displayed over the past 200 years, I really think that betting on how people there will behave is basically a pure degen move.
It is just way easier to bet on the Senate, because Senators have large public profiles that are good indicators of how they’ll act. And because senators are elected statewide, and not by narrow, gerrymandered constituencies, their votes are a lot more predictable.
Why would someone object to the election results?
I personally have been hearing a lot of garbage takes about which Senator is going to stun us by introducing a measure to challenge the election for XYZ galaxy brained political reason.
These takes are all fake news and horrible ways to bet.
At the end of the day, the vast majority of statewide elected officials are not bartenders from Queens who rode a savage Instagram game right into federal office.
Whether they are R or D, most, if not all senators, are successful people with admirable professional experience. For example, here are the resumes of the GOP Senators who people think are the most “crazy” and therefore, likely to sponsor legislation to undo the election:
Rand Paul (KY) – A practicing ophthalmologist (eye surgeon) with an MD from Duke.
Ron Johnson (WI) – successful CEO in plastics manufacturing.
Tom Cotton (AR) – Harvard Law Graduate, retired US Army Captain (commanded 100+ men in battle)
John Kennedy (LA) – Degrees from Vanderbilt (BA), Harvard (JD), and Oxford (BCL). Law partner. Adjunct professor at LSU.
Again, remember that introducing a formal challenge to the election is very different from voting for someone else’s challenge. And the idea that the default setting for conservative Republican senators will be to introduce such a challenge… is totally bonkers.
So what types of people are likely to introduce a challenge?
In order of most likely (1) to lease likely (6), here are the tiers:
(1) Those who actually think the election was “stolen”
Includes: Sen. Tommy Tuberville
(2) Those who think that sponsoring a formal challenge will help them survive a special election
Includes: Sen. Kelly Loeffler, Sen. David Perdue*
(3) Those who think that sponsoring a formal challenge will help them run for higher office
Includes: Sen. Marsha Blackburn, Sen. Tom Cotton, Sen. Ted Cruz
(4) Those who have an axe to grind because they feel like the libs have been especially unfair to them and want to really stick it to them back
Includes: Sen. Rick Scott, Sen. Lindsey Graham
(5) Hardcore conservatives who die on a lot of random hills:
Includes: Sen. Rand Paul, Sen. Josh Hawley, Sen. John Kennedy
(6) People who are worried about a Trump-tard primary in 2022:
Includes: Sen. Marco Rubio, Sen. Kelly Loeffler
So as we finish volume #1 on this subject, here are my power rankings for senators most likely to introduce a formal challenge. They are:
I will be posting follow-up blogs to explain how I am betting on all of these Senators.
*As some of you have pointed out, David Perdue’s senate seat will be vacant on January 6. Long story. But you can disregard him.