My favorite HIV super-spreader on planet earth recently posted this tweet asking a very important question for those betting on the Impeachment House Votes:
Rephrasing, Gaeten is pointing out that the current YES to Impeach whip count is 228, which puts it right on the edge of two betting brackets here, and opens up the possibility of a free money NO bet here (I have a tiny position reflecting my bias):
So, should we bet on some more Republicans pushing the vote count to 229 and beyond? Is this a free Money NO?
Here is the answer: It is a lock that someone else will vote to impeach.
The best places to look are the House Committee Ranking Members Committee & Subcommittee Chairs, the California Delegation, the Illinois Delegation, and the Tuesday Working Group. The first 2 are the most insulated from a MAGA primary and the closest to Leadership and can easily go down to K Street and beer bong 7-figures in new fundraising dollars to fend off a MAGA primary. The CA & IL delegations have electorates and re-districting coming up that will favor breaking with Trump.
And the Tuesday Group is the unofficial caucus of moderate Republicans.
BTW, the Tuesday Group includes impeachers:
- Adam Kinzinger
- Fred Upton
- Jaime Herrera Beutler
- John Katko
Additionally, no one REALLY keeps track of the Tuesday Group’s members, but they’re thought to be:
- Rodney DavisÂ (IL-13)
- Elise StefanikÂ (NY-21)
- Tom ReedÂ (NY-23)
- Mike TurnerÂ (OH-10)
- Brian FitzpatrickÂ (PA-1)
- Glenn ThompsonÂ (PA-15)
- David McKinleyÂ (WV-1)
- Jaime Herrera BeutlerÂ (WA-3)
- Cathy McMorris RodgersÂ (WA-5)
At least one of these will vote to impeach.
Additionally, the Fake News Media is reporting more defections are coming:
So to me, the answer is — B4 is dead. Easy money NO.