The Next 5 Biden Nominations to Be Confirmed

Animals,

Over the past few months I have been spitting takes that are 100% fire. Unfortunately, when you spit hot fire, sometimes you get burned. An example of this would be when I backed Zoltar’s claim that Trump would self-pardon himself and then got blown out like an absolute dog when he didn’t.

But sometimes when you spit hot fire, you get stanky rich from it. A recent example of this would be when I told you 3 weeks ago that Joe Biden’s cabinet was in danger of getting absolutely piped by the Senate calendar and missing PredictIt’s March 1 deadline for cabinet confirmations. If this was true, and the Senate was in fact going to be later seating Biden’s cabinet than James Cameron has been releasing Avatar 2, then about a dozen 5-1, 10-1, and 20-1 underdogs were going to pay out like an ATM.

And that is exactly what has been happening this past week as the market has finally gotten woke to the fact that bureaucratic slowdowns, an impeachment trial, and COVID relief are going to overwhelm the Senate’s calendar bigly.

For those of you who went ride or die with me on this trade, congratulations on making enough money to sit on a literal thrown of Modelos and pound beers out of the skulls of 90c bagholders. Remember to take your profits as you go.

For those of you who did not — I get it, we all have different risk tolerances. But as the Senate’s calendar finally firms up for these First 100 days of the Biden Administration, it’s time to ask…

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT FOR CONFIRMATIONS?

Just kidding…

This is a dicey question and it effects 2 trades that I am watching. The first one is on Polymarket, where you can bet on whether or not Biden will send people $2k in COVID Relief Buxx by February 28. The second one is whether or not to get into some of these confirmation markets, which are getting close to fair price.

I’m going to handle #2 in this post and will tackle #1 later on.

CONFIRMATIONS – NOW WHAT?

TBH, I am shook AF to see how far behind Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden are at installing the Cabinet. My earlier takes had focused on how a random nominee’s hearing date was basically more irrelevant to when they’ll be confirmed than ska music is to pop-culture. But so few nominees have had a hearing that this might not be true anymore. The number of options Schumer has is miserably small… and I mean, the Senate HAS to do something, right?

So here’s where we are on hearings so far. Bolded nominees already have floor votes scheduled.

DATENOMINEEDEPARTMENT
Jan 26Gina RaimondoCommerce
Jan 26Alex Mayorkas (Feb 1)DHS
Jan 27Jennifer GranholmEnergy
Jan 27Linda Thomas-GreenfieldUN Ambassador
Jan 27Mayor Pete (Feb 2)DOT
Jan 27Denis McDonoughVA
Jan 28Marcia FudgeHUD
Jan 28Cecilia RouseCEA
Feb 2Tom VilsackAG
Feb 3Micahel ReganEPA
Feb 3Marty WalshLabor
Feb 4Miguel CardonaEducation

Right now, the Senate is on pace to confirm about 1 nomination a day. So that means it’s safe to assume we’ll see nomination on the Senate floor on February 3, 4, 5, and also possibly the 8th. Donald Trump’s actual impeachment trial is set to begin on the Senate floor on February 9.

But next week, Chuck Schumer will also have to divert his attention to passing a Budget Resolution to kick-off of the “Reconciliation” process for a COVID relief bill.

This will take at least 1 more day of floor time and the specifics of it are very boring, so just take my word for it and move on.

So working backwards, 11 fresh nominees will have had their hearing by February 9, when Impeachment begins.

Here’s how I their confirmation playing out.

After that comes February 9, a day of absolute infamy for bagholders on either side:

February 9th is Doomsday for most unconfirmed nominees for a few reasons:

  • Trump’s trial begins and is expected to go at least a week (Feb 9-12)
  • The Senate is scheduled to be in recess the week of Feb 15-20
  • There is still a COVID relief bill out there that will need floortime & votes
  • Therefore, there are only 5 possible working days left to confirm everyone else, plus handle any COVID-related legislation between Feb 9 and March 1

I laid this out for you 3 weeks ago and the prophecy is becoming real.

So that leaves the following possibilities for the remaining 3 nominees worth of floor time before Feb 9; and possibly 5 during the week of Februar 22.

Who do you think is the priority?

DATENOMINEEDEPARTMENT
Jan 26Gina RaimondoCommerce
Jan 27Jennifer GranholmEnergy
Jan 27Linda Thomas-GreenfieldUN Ambassador
Jan 27Denis McDonoughVA
Jan 28Cecilia RouseCEA
Jan 28Marcia FudgeHUD
Feb 2Tom VilsackAG
Feb 3Micahel ReganEPA
Feb 3Marty WalshLabor
Feb 4Miguel CardonaEducation

And remember, Attorney General Merrick Garland and Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra haven’t even had their hearings scheduled yet, and both are arguably more important to the Biden Administration than this entire list combined.

But who does Biden prioritize?

I personally do not think it’s worth your time to dwell on who President Biden prioritizes for confirmation. It’s just a complete mindf*ck, though I give an edge to easy confirmations like Raimondo and McDonough pre-Feb 9, because they are well-known and liked.

But then again, Biden has been working extremely hard to disprove stereotypes about the racial attitudes of 78 year old white men from Scranton, PA… and by that I mean, he has been an absolute Medal of Honor winning Social Justice Warrior since taking office, so maybe he will just want to confirm everyone who isn’t white.

Oh and then there are sure to be all sorts of weird grudges in the Senate that will make “non-controversial” nominees suddenly very controversial. Point is, this is not a productive game to play.

But be careful, Marcia Fudge is a possibility too

…And I know I and many others are holding her as a “free money NO” that is not free money at all. Once the House passes its Budget Resolution next week, there is an argument for her vote being un-needed going forward.

So be very careful that this little kitty doesn’t turn against you:

Who will get confirmed after February 9?

No clue. Not even worth betting on.

Any other weird random stuff?

Yes. Remember, the Senate is an odd place where a lot of stuff happens because of the personalities of the individual members and their day-to-day motivation to be a dick or a cool guy. Honestly, sometimes policy decisions there come down to high school stuff like:

So there is always the chance that the Senate will come to a unanimous consent agreement to play catchup on nominations, or maybe approve a block of them with minimal debate. That would put YES bets back in the drivers seat.

This goes for committees too, which can always void their rules and accelerate hearings.

And remember, it’s not out of the question for the Senate to continue holding hearings while in recess. So a nomination you think is ded could come back to life quickly in that last week.

My Strategy:

I’m still holding NOs on Katherine Tai (USTR), Marcia Fudge (HUD), William Burns (CIA), Samantha Powers (USAID), and Neera Tanden (OMB). Maybe I’ll do another post on why.

But as a pretty conservative trader, I’ll be looking for opportunities to take my profits when markets spike my way.

Wait, but who are the next 5 Biden confirmations?

Alex Mayorkas, Pete Booty, Denis McDonough, Gina Raimondo, and Cecilia Rouse. Do I want to bet on them at the current prices? No way, Jose!

Good luck out there, animals.

KEENDAWG.

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