As you are no doubt aware, this website has more gold in it than Fort Knox. Throughout the Biden cabinet confirmation process, Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell have basically just been calling me up every morning and asking me what they are going to do. This is the main reason why I have been handing out bricks of gold for the last 3 weeks straight to those of you who are alpha enough to use my advice wisely.
So for my last trick in this whole act, I am going to make a YOLO play. I think that with a governing agreement between Rs and Ds still incomplete, a snowstorm that has cost the Senate at least one day’s worth of floor time, and the upcoming hearings of some high-profile cabinet members like Marty Walsh (Labor) and Miguel Cardona (Education), Jennifer Granholm is going to get pushed back in the confirmation line.
I am buying NO in this market.
If Granholm doesn’t get confirmed by Trump’s impeachment trial on February 9, she could be in some serious sh*t when it comes to hitting the March 1 deadline on PredictIt.
Now, when I say this is a YOLO play, I mean 3 things:
- I’m only doing it because of pricing (15c NO when I bought)
- I probably won’t hold this position for more than a week
- And I’m not throwing much money at it. In fact, because my mangina is especially tight right now, I only bought $50 worth of NO.
Here are the risks:
- Granholm’s nom is teed-up and ready to go, so there is no structural reason why she can’t be confirmed tomorrow other than apathy
- It’s possible that Chuck Schumer will cancel the Senate’s February recess week, which will add an extra 4 voting days to the calendar and give all NOs a massive kick in the balls
- It’s entirely possible that Granholm’s nomination could get UC’ed along with some others, like Tom Vilsack
But here’s the reward:
- Apathy seems to be the #1 thing with Chuck Schumer right, because he is getting absolutely smoked by Mitch McConnell every day.
- I am expecting more nominees to have hearings scheduled soon, including Merrick Garland & Xavier Becerra — who would definitely be in line in front of Granholm once ripened
- It’s looking increasingly likely that Granholm won’t get a vote before impeachment, which means that I expect people to panic sell for reasons I have detailed above.
- So I will just sit here like a total monster and sell into the panic for a marginal gain.
Anyway, I bought $50 worth of NO at 15c to see if I really am a genius. If this one breaks my way, then I am going to run for President of the World in 2024, and commission a throne to be made out of platinum Modelo cans.
It’s YOLO time.
PS – when you make these plays, be ready to limit your losses. If the market doesn’t panic on Feb 8, then I am not going to hang around for long.