In Politics, Always Judge a Book By Its Cover


I am taking a quick break from counting the money I am making off my bet that Sen. Bill Cassidy will vote to convict Donald Trump so that I can write this critical blog post (28c –> 60c so far) about why you should bet heavily based on the physical appearances of politicians. That’s right, you should judge a book by its over. It has actually been a very successful strategy for me so far.

This week, one of the key parts of my decision to bet on Bill Cassidy flipping his vote was his haircut, which looks a lot like a high school gym teacher or retired military officer’s.

In general, Bill Cassidy’s haircut and personal appearance are extremely austere, and re-enforced my belief that he is borderline autistic and would be triggered by the lack of intellectually defensible reasons to acquit Trump. His haircut was a crucial piece of evidence that I used to bet on his vote, and even if he does not ultimately side with the Dems, I will have profited handsomely.

It’s not the first time I’ve pulled this move.

For example, when rumors circulated about Mike Pompeo running for Senate, I initially took the bait. But over time I realized that he was too fat to run for statewide office and would be losing weight if he thought he needed to face voters soon.

At the time, I wrote that:

Secondly, Mike Pompeo is way too fat to be thinking about the White House. Running for office is like getting a girlfriend: you can get fat once you seal the deal, but not before. Also having a dog helps for both. This is no doubt part of the reason why Gov. Chris Christie got a tummy tuck in 2013. There simply are not enough fork lifts in Iowa and New Hampshire to lift a guy this size on to the stage.”

Pompeo only got fatter as Secretary of State and showed no signs of improving his physical appearance, so this bet was an easy NO.

Lastly, in this past election cycle, I spoke on the podcast about how I thought Joni Ernst’s new haircut was proof that her campaign was invigorated with energy and probably not in as much danger as the polls said.

Look at the before (2015) and after (2020):

On this count, my record was mixed. While I was right that she would win re-election, I took it a little too far and thought her haircut might be proof of a new political identity that would vote against Amy Barrett’s Supreme Court confirmation too. That was a fail.

No matter what, the point is that politics is a very superficial profession, so appearances can tell you a lot. Always judge a book by its cover — factor in other things too, but looks can tell you a lot.


PS – anyone who was following the career of prodigious Congressman Jared Polis (D-CO) in 2012 could tell the direction this former Republican bastion was headed.

This man is now the Governor.

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