How to Gamble on Joe Biden’s Health

What if Joe Biden dies or even looks like he might?

This is an important question to ask if you are betting money on political outcomes tied to his presidency.

Five U.S. presidents have died since John F. Kennedy’s assassination at an average age of 85.

Others came close to dying in office. Trump got COVID-19. George W. Bush and Reagan survived near-assassination attempts. And Bill Clinton had heart disease.

As an American, I can only hope that President Biden stays healthy enough to govern the country with competence.

As a political gambler, I am considering what it means for my bankroll that a 78-year old with visible signs of aging just began a four-year term.

The mere rumor of a presidential health crisis could panic the markets. Just imagine how the internet would react if Biden took a Gerald Ford-style tumble.

Here are some positions I am building just in case:

Joe Biden to be 2024 Democratic Nominee: Bought no at 65% with plans to hold for at least another year or so.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren: Buying yes at 3-4% that they will be the 2024 Democratic nominee. I don’t think either will happen, but an incident with Biden would probably spike these prices for a few days.

Kamala Harris: I am buying yes in the low 20s that she will file for president before 2023. I am hedging by shorting her for the 2024 Democratic nomination in the low 60s.

I hope these positions don’t pay. I fear they will.

Pratik Chougule is a contributor to Star Spangled Gamblers and author of the book How to Make Money from Political Predictions: A Guide to Generating High, Steady Returns from PredictIt.

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One thought

  1. Pratik: My take: “As an American, I can only hope that President Biden stays healthy enough to govern the country with competence.” You seem serious but everybody has noticed that he is unable to do a press conference. If he ever does one it won’t be your usual press conference. He is not governing the country. He does sign everything they put in front of him but he doesn’t create or initiate any of those executive orders. Or anything else. So who is actually doing the governing?

    Biden not being the 2024 nominee is as close to a lock as anything has ever been on PredictIt.

    And certainly there is a chance that Biden won’t last until February 2023 but my guess is that they’ll do whatever is necessary to keep it going until then. And if Harris takes the chair at that point it seems very likely that she WILL be the nominee. If she’s appointed before then it seems more likely that they’ll find a “more establishment” candidate. But I can easily imagine her running in 2024 even if Joe miraculously makes it through his term. I’m sure I sound like a dingbat to you, but wait a year and let’s see what you think!

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