This has been one of the greatest weeks in history for the Boys. That is due to the fact that:
- COPS is back on TV… and is guaranteed to win at least 6-7 Emmys this year
- There are easily 10+ different ways to bet on the Debt Ceiling/Budget Bills in Congress across all the major political gambling sites: PredictIt, Polymarket, and Kalshi
Translation: the Fake News Media (FNM) can yap all they want about all the phony blow-ups in Congress, and how an absolute armageddon is hitting the country every single day… but we get to call BS on them in highly profitable ways.
So I put on my genius hat and picked-out a few places where the value is the absolute best to bet on the inevitable outcome of the Debt Ceiling (they’ll raise it) and a Reconciliation bill (they’ll pass something).
When will the debt ceiling be lifted?
PredictIt has a line that is set for Fri, Oct 15 and this is seriously frightening. That is due to the fact that Oct 18 is D-Day for the debt ceiling. So Congress could blow it and still get their homework in on time.
I am holding YES on that bet… but it is honestly more gut-wrenching than Kanye West’s mental health since Yeezus.
However, Kalshi has a bet that expires on Oct 19, the day after, and I am feeling good vibes on YES here in the low-70s.
Will Congress pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill by Oct 15?
This is a safe no. With the debt ceiling still out there to be solved, the idea that Speaker Pelosi is going to be keeping both of these multi-trillion-dollar skillets cooking on the stovetop is looney. But this market has spiked as high as 95/5 for YES, which is not a good deal at all. There are possibilities for cuckenings so be careful on anything above 85.
Will Congress increase corporate taxes?
Listen up, Chaco. If Congress is going to pass any version of a reconciliation bill (that $3.5T monster you keep hearing about), it’s going to need to raise a lot of money to do it.
One of the most popular solutions for finding this revenue is to jack-up the corporate tax rate a few points and possibly split the difference between where Obama set it (high) and where Trump did (low). This is not a risk-free trade; but IMO, it’s hard to imagine a reconciliation bill getting done without some kind of corporate tax increase. It’s a nice one in the 60s.
…And if you wan to learn more about these trades, listen to our podcast about them.
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