If you know one thing about me, it is that there are basically only two things that I care about:
- Slamming Modelos with the Boys; and
- Betting on Congress
So obviously I have been slamming a lot of Modelos this past month due to the fact that Kalshi has fired-off an absolute barrage of bets on Congress. Most of them have to do with this monster reconciliation bill that is pitting Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema against the Progressive Martyrs Brigade aka Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Pramila Jayapal.
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I’ve been trading in-and-out of a few of these markets. But to get you up to speed, it’s important to make a very simple point about strategy and outlook:
At this point it is pretty clear that the Democratic Party’s Leadership — and by that I mostly mean Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Joe Biden — have a very low bar for what they’ll accept and pass. For you, it’s a signal that they just want to get out of this contentious negotiation that is dividing the Democratic Party without any major embarrassments.
AND NOT TO JUMP THE SHARK…
WILL THIS RECONCILIATION BILL PASS?
Every single bet you can make on the Reconciliation Bill ends on or before Dec 31. So it’s really a question of will it pass by then (or in some cases, sooner).
That’s a hard one to answer in a quick blog, but we did our best in the most recent SSG podcast.
The important note for your broader betting strategy is this:
There are plenty of ways to make money betting on this convoluted legislative package without needing to be right.
And in general, it’s always safest to bet on Congress doing nothing, or doing something very slowly.
With that in mind:
- I am betting NO on basically every reconciliation market that requires the bill to pass before Dec 1
- I am avoiding NO bets on things that will obviously be in any version of the bill that passes (taxing rich people, taxing corporations — you can bet on both of these on Kalshi) if that bet has until December to hit.
- I am considering NO bets on the above, if I get the right market signals. But like I said, it seems like President Biden will sign literally anything, and it’s pretty obvious that literally anything is going to include some sort of tax hike on corporations and rich people.
- To hedge against some sort of infrastructure deal going through, just buy some cheap options in the total House votes market on PredictIt. If and when the bipartisan bill passes, it will pass with bipartisan margins.
It’s that easy.
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