It’s Time to Recklessly Gamble Again (Dems in Disarray Edition)


It is time to do something very special and important for a young man’s life.

It is time to gamble recklessly and make a risky bet based on raw instinct alone.

This one is for your high risk files… but I think pricing is on my side.

According to market prices, most of you are not willing to bet on Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill passing by Nov 1. So I have been buying the shares that you are panic selling here.

Actually I am lying. I made my bets on Kalshi instead, because the pricing there is way better than PredictIt’s, and the contract only settles 14 hours sooner (7 AM PDT — always read the rules, animals).

UPDATE — PredictIt’s odds are 2X the cost but 2X as safe since Joe Biden doesn’t need to sign and he is about to fly to France.

Honestly, I know that Rep. Pramila Jayapal and her Progressives Caucus put their sad faces on again on Tuesday. I know that they have turned the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill into a caucus-wide mood ring for their relationship with Nancy Pelosi and Joe Manchin.

I know that they are withholding their votes from this bill and hoping it will give them the juice to pass a beefy reconciliation package (“Build Back Better,” “Human Infrastructure” or whatever we are calling it now).

But I personally am not buying it at these prices. Here’s why.

At this point, the Dems basically have 3 options:

  • Let the Progressives cry some more and delay the inevitable (a week AF BBB or none at all) for a few more weeks
  • Do nothing and leave Terry McAuliffe in a Vietcong prison camp with Republican Glenn Youngkin as his tormentor for Tuesday’s VA gubernatorial election
  • Have Joe Biden put on his daddy pants and tell Reps and Senators that it is time to get in line and vote

Let me review these options.

  1. This is a very bad outcome because it is almost November and Dems still don’t even know what is in this bill, what it is called, or who is paying for it. Push it to 2022 and it’s game over BBB.
  2. I do not often vote for Democrats but they are generally honorable men. Do you think they will leave Terry McAuliffe to die? Honestly, if he blows this election in VA then everyone is running for their lifeboats immediately and Joe Biden will have no choice but to return to his basement until after the 2022 elections.
  3. Joe Biden definitely does not want to pick his favorite wing of the party. Piss off the Progressives and there will be no one to volunteer for Dem campaigns. Piss off the moderates and there will be no one to fund them.

So basically, Nancy Pelosi aka the GOAT needs to deliver one more game winning drive in order to save Terry McAuliffe, save both of these bills, and protect Joe Biden from alienating his own base. The policy outcomes here are going to be the same no matter what. It’s really just an issue of whether Pelosi delivers a disappointing bill on a timeline that is helpful to Democrats or harmful to them. Failure is obviously not an option.

Despite the way they act on TV, Members of Congress are not morons. Your average Democrat understand this calculus too.

And if history repeats itself, a new day will bring new rumors of deals struck — and a favorable pump for me to unload my position for a nice gain.

For these reasons, I am buying YES that this bill passes in the teens on Kalshi. Give me 24 hours and I’ll be selling them to you for 30c.


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