A COVID Christmas Miracle? Don’t Bet On It.
I am not sure whether you are the type of guy who likes to absolutely lose his mind every time a new COVID variant comes out, or if you are pretty much just a battle hardened veteran who is way too grizzled to be scared by anything after 2 years of corona.
I personally identify as an alpha male, so my approach is to ignore my feelings, push them deep down, and then use my gambling habit as a release valve.
This week, to hedge my own sense of danger versus the COVID omicron variant, I am betting on this Polymarket “investment opportunity”:
FDA TO APPROVE PFIZER’S ANTI-COVID PILL?
GET A $100 SIGNING BONUS TO MAKE YOUR FIRST TRADE ON POLYMARKET
However, I am not very good at science, so to crack this market, I called in a ringer: Jason Pipkin, who is a PhD neurologist and savage trader.
FDA drug approvals are a complicated subject, so you should 100% listen to our most recent podcast, where we cover this subject in detail. But if you are a degen and just want to know what side to bet your kids’ Christmas present fund on, here is a quick walking tour.
WILL THE FDA APPROVE PAXLOVID BY DEC 31?
Pipkin and I both think this is a NO. This is because:
- Bureaucrats are inherently lazy, especially during the Christmas season
- The average wait time from a notice of an FDA hearing to the FDA drug approval hearing itself is ~21 days.
- It’s Dec 6 today
- We could find no evidence of recent FDA hearings between Christmas and New Years
Here’s a screenshot from my personal notes. This POS spreadsheet is tracking approval timelines for other COVID drugs. You’ll get the idea:
As you can see, it wouldn’t be unheard of for the FDA to notice a hearing sometime this week to discuss Paxlovid.
But given that they just approved another COVID pill from Merck, my guess is that the average bureaucrat feels like they’ve more than done their job this Holiday Season and will spend the next few weeks “working from home” aka watching Season 3 of Young Sheldon and reading blogs about fruit cake recipes.
Since dropping the podcast and putting this tip out to our SSG Members group, the market price has jumped from 50/50 to 70/30 NO. So obviously you should join the SSG Members group so you get this information first.
But if the NO price creeps into the 80s before Dec 10, it might be a good play to fade the market. Like I said, the FDA can always convene a hearing on short notice, especially with a new variant bearing down. They’ve done it before and might do it again.
MY BET – NO @ 53c
YOUR BET – NO is still an OK buy but we are probably nearing fair value here
Listen to the full podcast and decide for yourself.
LISTEN TO THE PODCAST HERE:
Enticed? Remember, Polymarket will pay you $100 to make your initial deposit if you use this exclusive promotion here.